Update and recent results of biometeorological forecasts in Cuba
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Abstract
The new tools and algorithms developed to improve the effectiveness of the biometeorological forecasts service are presented, obtained during the years 2018 and 2019 through the execution of the project “Influence of atmospheric circulation processes on the genesis of meteor-tropic effects that occur in Cuba”, which allowed validating in the operational practice of the Meteorological Center in the Island of Youth, a set of new functions, algorithms and decision criteria, based on expert opinions. These new forecasting tools were used during all the Covid-19 Pandemic through systematic reports, issued twice a week to the Provincial Defense Council of Villa Clara and the Municipal Defense Council of the Island of Youth. Between March 2020 and July 2022, 253 biometeorological forecasts and 43 alerts were made because the expected occurrence of notable meteor-tropic effects, including: 2 hurricanes, 2 tropical storms, several Saharan dust clouds, one of them very intense in April 2020, with a strong impact on the health of the population, the pollution associated with emissions from “La Soufriere” and “Cumbre Vieja” volcanoes, as well as several large forest fires. Early health warnings were also issued for several very contrasting weather changes, caused by summer and winter conditions. The content of the forecasts was combined with weekly statistical estimates of the behavior of the Pandemia for the 13 municipalities of Villa Clara and the Island of Youth.
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