Revista Cubana de Meteorología

Statistical downscaling and wave height bias correction for Cuban coasts

Axel Hidalgo Mayo, Ida Mitrani Arenal — Wed, 19 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Projections of significant wave height (Hsig) for the periods 2041-2070 (mid-term) and 2071-2100 (long-term) with respect to 1981-2010 are presented using statistical downscaling for the Cuban archipelago. Data from the ERA5 reanalysis and meteorological buoys 42003 and 42056 were used, as well as the output of five global climate models (GCM) for the climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The validation methods used were Pearson's correlation coefficient (R), mean error (BIAS), root mean square error (RSME), Taylor Skill Score (TSS) and Skill Score (SS). At the same time, BIAS correction (BC) by delta method and delta quantile delta mapping (DQM) as well as bilinear interpolation were applied. The results show that the regression model used to estimate Hsig as a function of wind speed, for the mean of the five GCMs (MMM), after application of BC, showed R=0.90, RSME=0.09 m, TSS=0.81 and SS=0.64 for monthly means, while for daily data, related to the 50th and 90th percentiles, RSME ranged between 0.2-0.6 m. The annual mean Hsig is expected to increase in the Cuban coasts in all periods and climatic scenarios analyzed with respect to 1981-2010, except for SSP5-8.5 in the long term; while the extreme indicators of climate change used indicate that the Cuban marine climate in terms of Hsig would transition to be more extreme, for each of the periods and climatic scenarios analyzed.

Behavior of regional atmospheric circulation processes that influence North America since the end of the 19th century

Edgardo Soler Torres, Luis B. Lecha Estela, Pedro Roura Pérez — Sat, 12 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The fundamental characteristics of the atmospheric circulation groups in the hemispheric sector of North America are established from the Elementary Circulation Mechanisms of the classification created by B.L. Dzerdzeevskii and collaborators, for the period from 1899 to 2019 (121 years). The result contains the analysis of regional circulation macro processes, grouped according to latitudinal and longitudinal flows, their multiannual and seasonal variability, describes the behavior of the most frequent circulation group in the year, as well as the changes in flows identified during the study period; to finally establish, through their average annual frequencies, the macro processes that are representative for each one of the periods considered. The relevance of the group of southern longitudinal circulations in the increase in the transport of mass and energy towards high latitudes, since the 80s of the 20th century, is highlighted; as well as the regional macro process 9, predominant within the northern longitudinal, is relevant in the occurrence of sudden and notable Arctic invasions, that affect the region since the beginning of the 21st century. Finally, the fundamental characteristics that define the circulation eras are presented, according to the groups studied for the hemispheric sector of North America, which includes the low latitude geographic area where Cuba is located, marked by the seasonal oscillation of the border between the tropical and extra tropical zones.

Frecuency factor Kt estimation for the incomplete gamma probability distribution

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

In the present paper, a procedure is presented to obtain the value of the frequency factor for the Incomplete Gamma Probability Distribution Function from their shape (α) and scale (β) parameters. Using regression analysis, the rainfall data resulting from applying the model of the reduced variable were compared with those obtained with the Incomplete Gamma Function. Data from 53 years of total monthly rainfall from the meteorological station 27039 Samaria, Cunduacán, Tabasco were used to adjust and calibrate the values of the frequency factor K_T. Likewise, the values of total monthly rainfall from five meteorological stations from various rainfed regions of Mexico were selected, with records ranging from 31 to 59 years. Data from the meteorological stations of Motul de Felipe Carrillo Puerto, Yucatán; Texcoco, State of Mexico; Suchiate, Chiapas; Zapopan, Jalisco; and Acaponeta, Nayarit to validate the resulting values of the K_T frequency factor. The Pearson correlation coefficient in the adjustment, calibration, and validation processes was higher than 0.997. Thus, the resulting K_T values had a very good fit and are reliable for calculating the probability of exceeding the total monthly rainfall for an Incomplete Gamma Function.

Implementation of climate services in the agricultural sector and its contribution to decision-making

Sat, 08 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The climate is a crucial factor for the life and livelihood of all human beings and for development as a whole. Throughout history, society has had to face climate variability, particularly extreme atmospheric and climatic phenomena, but climate change represents a new and larger challenge. Thus, the adoption of climate services as scientific tools to address the challenges posed by climate in any sector of society becomes evident. These services encompass many products that facilitate the generation and provision of information based on past, present, and future climate, as well as its impacts on natural and human systems. Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to climate variability and change; therefore, the general objective of this research was to implement climate services focused on the Global Framework for Climate Services in the agricultural sector of the province of Cienfuegos and its contribution to decision-making. Services were implemented tailored to the needs of each user. To assess user satisfaction, a survey was conducted that yielded entirely positive feedback, surpassing the results of previous research in the province and qualitatively demonstrating how beneficial climate information can be for users' understanding in making informed decisions to adapt to and mitigate climate variability and change.

Propuesta de seguro agropecuario basado en pronósticos estacionales de lluvia

Sun, 06 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The main objective of the project, "Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting for Climate Event Management in Cuba and Other Countries in the Region (SIN-Drought)," is to generate products based on rainfall forecasts that effectively respond to the sectoral demands that employ them. In this regard, agroclimatic index methodologies have been used. Models, injected with seasonal rainfall forecasts, support the National Insurance Company, particularly the agricultural insurance section, in taking into account the spatiotemporal characteristics related to climate and agricultural activity when implementing an agricultural drought insurance policy. Two agricultural insurance variants are presented that may be more economically efficient, more advanced, and affordable. They could even be the beginning of the application of parametric insurance based on agroclimatic indices in Cuba.

Spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric pollutants in two locations in Havana

Rosemary López Lee, Arnaldo Evaristo Collazo Aranda, Osvaldo Cuesta Santos — Mon, 07 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The spatial and temporal variability of air pollutants in an urban area is great. Superimposed on daily meteorological variability are seasonal cycles of human activities that influence air quality. The objective of this research was to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone and particulate matter in two locations in Havana from November 2015 to October 2016. Hourly concentration data from two Automatic Atmospheric Monitoring Stations. The non-parametric Mann - Whitney U, Kruskal - Wallis and Dunn H tests were applied. The concentrations of the contaminants corresponded to the distribution patterns characteristic of urban locations. Particulate matter was the pollutant that most frequently exceeded the maximum admissible concentrations of the Cuban Standard.

Update and recent results of biometeorological forecasts in Cuba

Mon, 26 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The new tools and algorithms developed to improve the effectiveness of the biometeorological forecasts service are presented, obtained during the years 2018 and 2019 through the execution of the project “Influence of atmospheric circulation processes on the genesis of meteor-tropic effects that occur in Cuba”, which allowed validating in the operational practice of the Meteorological Center in the Island of Youth, a set of new functions, algorithms and decision criteria, based on expert opinions. These new forecasting tools were used during all the Covid-19 Pandemic through systematic reports, issued twice a week to the Provincial Defense Council of Villa Clara and the Municipal Defense Council of the Island of Youth. Between March 2020 and July 2022, 253 biometeorological forecasts and 43 alerts were made because the expected occurrence of notable meteor-tropic effects, including: 2 hurricanes, 2 tropical storms, several Saharan dust clouds, one of them very intense in April 2020, with a strong impact on the health of the population, the pollution associated with emissions from “La Soufriere” and “Cumbre Vieja” volcanoes, as well as several large forest fires. Early health warnings were also issued for several very contrasting weather changes, caused by summer and winter conditions. The content of the forecasts was combined with weekly statistical estimates of the behavior of the Pandemia for the 13 municipalities of Villa Clara and the Island of Youth.

Distribución espacial y marcha diaria de las Tormentas Locales Severas en Cuba entre 1980 y 2022

Alis Varela de la Rosa, Yanneyis Rojas-Díaz, Royelkis Hernández Turcas — Wed, 21 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Severe local storms are recurring meteorological phenomena in Cuban territory, capable of causing significant material damage and social impacts. Therefore, it is essential to identify the areas of highest incidence to implement effective mitigation measures. This study aims to determine the daily temporal distribution of reports of these events and update their spatial distribution in Cuba. To achieve this, records of severe events from 1980 to 2022 were analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2016 and the Geographic Information System QGIS. The results highlight that, although these phenomena can occur at any time of the day, 94.3% of cases are concentrated between 12:00 PM and 8:00 PM. Additionally, there is a higher frequency of formation in the interior regions of the archipelago, particularly in a corridor that extends from the west of Artemisa to Camagüey, with significantly lower incidence in coastal areas.

Factors that affect the duration and intensity of short-duration heavy rainfall: radar analysis

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Thunderstorms are formed and sustained by strong updrafts that carry water droplets to the upper portions of the cloud. These droplets precipitate and create accumulations on the surface, which, upon reaching a certain threshold, are classified as "locally intense short-duration rainfall." Such rainfall can cause damage to social and economic infrastructure and pose a risk to human safety. Predicting these storms is quite complex due to their significant spatial and temporal variability, as well as the intricate mechanisms and multiple factors that contribute to their formation. The primary objective of this research was to identify the meteorological factors that distinguish the occurrence of these intense events. To this end, a series of factors were selected as potential discriminants, which, according to physical laws and processes, influence the duration of precipitation. To assess the effectiveness of the storms, a comparison was made between cases that produced locally intense short-duration rainfall and those that did not exhibit similar phenomena. The most significant findings indicate that the length of the cloud system in the direction of its movement, the number of convective cells, and the simultaneous interactions with the system's movement speed are the factors that most significantly influence substantial precipitation accumulations.

National circumstances accompanying the Cuban national greenhouse gases inventory. Serie 1990 – 2022

Carlos Sosa Pérez, Rosemary López Lee, Osvaldo Cuesta Santos — Wed, 11 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

A national GHG Greenhouse Gases Inventory (INGEI, in Spanish version) is the balance between the amount of greenhouse gases emitted and removed from the atmosphere in a given place and at a given time, generally corresponding to a calendar year. The objective of INGHGIs is to determine the magnitude of national GHG emissions and removals that are directly attributable to human activity, as well as the country's specific contribution to the phenomenon of climate change. The work shows the national circumstances that accompany the Fourth National Greenhouse Gas Inventory of Cuba (INGEI of Cuba), which covers the period from 1990 to 2022 and will be presented by the country before the United Nations Framework Convention on the Climate Change (UNFCCC). The general background on the INGEI of Cuba, the institutional arrangements, the updating process, the methodology used and the principal categories are shown. The implementation of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines constitutes a significant step with respect to previous reports in which the Revised IPCC Guidelines of 1996 were fundamentally followed. The international economic environment for Cuba is characterized by the persistence of the economic, commercial and financial of the government of the United States of America. Since 2020, the covid-19 pandemic and the tightening of the blockade have affected the Cuban economy. A new economic model that focuses on strategic lines for the development of the country, the decentralization of the State and the government to benefit the management of local governments, the increase in foreign investment, and the stimulation of the private sector with the objectives of plotted development.

Glaciares en peligro. Impactos en Cuba y el trópico insular

Luis E. Ramos Guadalupe — Wed, 19 Mar 2025 14:23:38 +0000

El 14 de diciembre de 2022, la Organización de Naciones Unidas (ONU) declaró a 2025 “Año Internacional de la Conservación de los Glaciares”, y proclamó al 21 de marzo como “Día Mundial de los Glaciares”.[1] La efeméride se celebra este año por primera vez.

A más de lo anterior, la ONU designó en su 78.º período de sesiones al intervalo 2025-2034 como “Decenio de Acción para las Ciencias Criosféricas”,[2] iniciativa dirigida a potenciar el conocimiento multidisciplinar en torno a la dinámica del hielo en el Planeta, que incluye la modelación matemática de los procesos relacionados con esos fenómenos. El termino criosfera (o criósfera, si se prefiere) alude a toda la masa de agua en estado sólido presente en la Tierra en cualesquiera de sus manifestaciones: glaciares, nieve, hielo superficial, y permafrost o suelo congelado temporal o permanentemente.

Todas estas decisiones se orientan a llamar la atención sobre el papel de los glaciares en el ciclo hidrológico a escala planetaria, y a destacar cómo el deshielo y el retroceso de los conglomerados nivales repercuten en el clima, el medio ambiente global, el equilibro de los ecosistemas, la salud, el bienestar humano y el desarrollo sostenible.[3]

Excluyendo los fenómenos de escarcha que eventualmente ocurren de manera local en Cuba, nuestro archipiélago no tiene territorios cubiertos de hielo; ello resulta de su situación en la zona tropical y la elevada temperatura de las corrientes oceánicas en su entorno geográfico, así como de la altura de sus montañas bajo la cota de 2 mil metros sobre los 20º de latitud. Todo lo anterior hace improbables las precipitaciones en forma de nieve y su ulterior acumulación. Siendo así, pudiera pensarse que las ciencias criosféricas carecen de interés para nosotros; sin embargo, la realidad muestra una perspectiva bien distinta si se tiene en cuenta que los glaciares integran el sistema climático global, además de los servicios ambientales que prestan.

Si continúa la fusión de los hielos marinos o fluviolacustres, y si desaparecen los glaciares y se reduce la cobertura helada en los territorios continentales, Cuba y otros estados insulares sufrirán por la disminución del efecto regulador de aquellos en la temperatura mundial, mientras que el derretimiento del hielo conllevará a la elevación del nivel medio del mar y el consiguiente avance de las aguas más allá de la línea costera actual, provocando la pérdida de cientos de kilómetros cuadrados de territorio y la amplificación de las inundaciones asociadas a eventos hidrometeorológicos extremos, como los ciclones tropicales. En ese caso, las mareas de tormenta tendrían cada vez mayor extensión.

A nivel general se prevé que el retroceso de los glaciares y la fusión del permafrost reduzcan la estabilidad de las laderas montañosas, que sea mayor la incidencia de las inundaciones por el desbordamiento de lagos glaciares, y que los deslaves y avalanchas de nieve se produzcan en nuevos lugares o en estaciones distintas.

En el informe experto para la ONU,[4] se hace evidente que el calentamiento global ha provocado en las últimas décadas la contracción generalizada de la criosfera, con pérdidas de masa en los mantos de hielo y los glaciares, y reducciones de la cubierta de nieve que alteran el volumen y la estacionalidad de la escorrentía. Todo ello impacta en los recursos hídricos de las cuencas fluviales que se sostienen con los aportes de las nieves, con efecto en la disminución del rendimiento agrícola en regiones de alta montaña, la escasez de agua, o la reducción de su disponibilidad en las cuencas bajas, conjuntamente con el ya citado aumento del nivel del mar y el desplazamiento de las poblaciones adyacentes a la línea costera. Los estudios también señalan que el incremento de la temperatura global tendrá efectos irreversibles en ecosistemas de baja resiliencia en las zonas polares y de montaña, y en los deltas litorales, a más de la disminución de las reservas naturales de agua dulce y los cambios en la circulación de las corrientes oceánicas.

A la vista de estos múltiples impactos, se hace necesario destacar la jornada que comienza el 21 de marzo, Día Mundial de los Glaciares; el Dia Mundial del Agua, el 22 del mismo mes; y el 23 de marzo, Día Meteorológico Mundial. En cada una de estas fechas, la ciencia cubana tiene mucho que decir y experiencias que aportar con la implementación del Plan de Estado para el enfrentamiento al cambio climático, nuestra crucial Tarea Vida.

Greenhouse gases derived from the biological tratament of solid waste

Ignaivis de la Caridad Castillo Lemus, Rosemary López Lee — Wed, 09 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Biological treatment is a practice that reduces the volume of materials, promotes the stabilization of waste, and destroys pathogenic agents. The management through aerobic processes to encourage decomposition causes most of the degradable organic carbon in the waste to be converted into biogenic carbon dioxide. In the anaerobic conditions of compost bags, methane and nitrous oxide are also formed. This study estimated greenhouse gas emissions from composting in Cuba for the time series 2002-2022 by applying the 2006 Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It was found that methane and nitrous oxide emissions resulting from biological waste treatment are typically low in Cuba.

State of the climate in Cuba 2024. Extended summary

Tue, 18 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This report shows the behavior of the main indicators that characterized Cuba's climate during 2024, as well as some factors that regulate climate variability in the region. The main extreme meteorological and climatic phenomena that affected the national territory during the year are shown (extreme events due to heat, waves, droughts and tropical cyclones) with significant impacts on the country's economy. The "Outbreak" of severe weather that occurred during the winter season was a rare event in a large area such as western Cuba. Although an ENSO event of great significance did not develop, the existence of neutral conditions during the second half of the year and its evolution towards an AENOS, favored the occurrence of a very active cyclonic season in the area, the impact on Cuba of a tropical storm and two hurricanes, which favored the generation of strong waves in waters near the national territory. The sustained increase in the average temperature in Cuba remains consistent with what has been recorded at the global and regional level. All information is kept in reference to the standard climatological normal 1991-2020, which makes it possible to compare recent observations as well as to calculate deviations or anomalies of a value with respect to that reference value. However, sometimes the period 1961-1990, recommended by the WMO (2017), is used to evaluate long-term temperature changes.

National circumstances accompanying the Cuban National Greenhouse Gases Inventory. Serie 1990 – 2022

Carlos Sosa Pérez, Rosemary López Lee , Osvaldo Cuesta Santos — Thu, 12 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000