Predominant probabilities of occurrence of wind speed in the north coast of eastern Cuba
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Abstract
Synoptic climatology studies the relationship between atmospheric circulation and the surface environment. To determine the predominant probabilities of occurrence of the average wind speed in selected stations of the north coast in the eastern half of Cuba, according to the types of influential synoptic situations, a methodological design of subseasonal synoptic-statistical forecast is elaborated, which uses the databases of the classifications of the types of synoptic situations and the average wind speed records during the period between 1978 and 2017. A logical process diagram represents the sequence in which the steps that make up the methodology used to calculate the predominant probabilities of occurrence of the classes of average wind speed, through the concept of conditional probability, which previously establishes the existence of statistical association between the categorical variables: types of synoptic situations and average wind speed, through a Chi-test Pearson square. The verification of the synoptic-statistical forecast shows good accuracy towards the extreme east of Cuba (Punta de Maisí) and acceptable in the central east (Nuevitas), except in the summer period. The greatest coherence between the different statistical error measures determined was obtained for the average wind speed class of 3.5 to 9.4 m/s, which is the one with the greatest predictive interest since it has High wind potential. The result obtained provides new knowledge about atmospheric circulation and its relationship with the average speed of the wind on the surface, and due to its predictive usefulness, it will contribute to greater efficiency in the planning, execution of maintenance and management of existing wind installations. and projected.
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