Statistical software to calculate hurricane return periods
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Abstract
The greatest natural disasters registered in our country’s history have been associated with tropical cyclones. The great cyclonic activity that has taken place in the past few years has focused the attention the climatology of these events, their variability and their tendency on the long haul. Several hurricanes have caused disasters of great magnitude, due, fundamentally to the number of diseased according to the impact of the storms. According to the revised trajectory of the hurricanes that thrashed the Cuban island and the surrounding seas, the Cuban Republic territory has different sensibilities regarding the degrees of damage. This is the main reason behind the development of the TkHURS software to obtain the return periods and calculate the estimated frequencies.
This procedure is performed through a Poisson Model Fitting of the variable that counts the number of hurricanes that thrashed Cuba on the period 1791-2016, from the Chronology of Tropical Cyclones and General Weather States. We propose a methodology to have a better understanding of how to use the software. With the most representative model to fit the data, we allow to estimate values closer to reality and to better understand the analyzed variable regime. In addition, we offer these services to several institutions to obtain an economical gain.
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