Verification of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity forecast for the year 2017
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Abstract
This paper presents the evaluation of the Atlantic Ocean’s cyclonic activity forecast for the year 2017, made on a synoptic-statistical method that takes into account the behavior of the fundamental oceanic and atmospheric conditions that regulate the cyclonic activity in the Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, the normalized deviations of the predicted and real values were compared, taking into account the averages for the period 1965 - 2016. In general, the basic considerations for the predicted activity were fulfilled satisfactorily when anticipating an active cyclonic season and resulting in the same way. The principal factors that favored cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin during the year 2017 were the development of La Niña-Southern Oscillation event in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the heating of the waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, as well as the anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere, the weak vertical wind shear, and the below normal values of the atmospheric pressure at sea level in the tropical zone.
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Valderá-FigueredoN., González-PedrosoC., & Pérez-SuárezR. (2019). Verification of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity forecast for the year 2017. Revista Cubana De Meteorología, 25(1), 84-89. Retrieved from http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/article/view/456
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Original Articles
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CPC (2017): ENSO Evolution, Status and Prediction. Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.noaa.gov [Consultado el 17 de junio de 2018].
GONZÁLEZ, C. & PÉREZ, R. (2017a): Pronóstico de la temporada ciclónica 2017 para el Atlántico Norte. Instituto de Meteorología, 1 pp.
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INSMET (2017): Resúmenes de temporada ciclónica. Disponible en Disponible en http://www.insmet.cu [Consultado el 15 de julio de 2018].
IRI (2017): ENSO Forecast. International Research Institute for Climate and Society http://www.iri.edu.gov.
KLOTZBACH, P.J. & BELL, M.M. (2017): Summary of 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and verification of authors’ seasonal and two-week forecasts. Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Colorado State University, 37 pp.
KLOTZBACH, P.J.; SHRECK III, C.J.; COLLINS, J.M.; BELL, M.M.; BLAKE, E.S. & ROACHE, D. (2018): The Extremely Active 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. Monthly Weather Review 146: 3425-3443. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0078.1.
NCEP/NCAR: The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research http://www.ncep.noaa.gov [Consultado el 17 de junio de 2018].
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