Verification of Seasonal Forecast of Cyclonic Activity in the North Atlantic for the year 2016

Abstract

This paper presents the verification of the seasonal forecast of cyclonic activity in the Atlantic Ocean for the year 2016, based on a statistical method that takes into account the fundamental oceanic and atmospheric conditions that regulate the cyclonic activity in the Atlantic Ocean, the tropical cyclones climatology and their variability among other aspects. For this purpose, the normalized deviations of the predicted and real values were compared, taking into account the averages for the period 1965 - 2015. The basic considerations for the predicted activity were fulfilled satisfactorily when anticipating an active cyclonic season and resulting in the same way. The prognosis for the impact on Cuba by hurricanes was also satisfactory. The principal factors that favored the behaviour higher than normal of cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin during the year 2016 were the existence of favorable conditions on the surface and the lower troposphere, the conditions imposed by a neutral ENSO event with a slight cooling of the waters in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, below normal values of the atmospheric pressure at sea level in the tropical zone and the anomalous positive behavior of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.