Physical-meteorological factors that influence in the intensity of short-duration heavy rainfall in Cuba based on the SISPI model
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Abstract
At a local scale, locally intense short-duration rainfall is associated with the daily activity of thunderstorms. Sometimes, it causes significant negative impacts on social infrastructure and human safety, although it is not considered within the Severe Local Storms. Its prediction becomes very complex according to its great spatial and temporal variability, in addition to the mechanisms and multiplicity of factors that intervene in its generation. The main objective of this research is to determine the physical-meteorological factors that discriminate the occurrence of these intense events, thus contributing to the elaboration of their future short-term forecast. A series of factors were selected as possible discriminants and that, responding to laws and processes of physics, influenced the intensity of the precipitation. To check if they were effective, a comparison was established between cases in which the storms generated locally intense short-duration rainfall and cases in which they did not generate these phenomena, based on the calculation of thermodynamic variables. The most relevant result was attributed to the fact that all physical-meteorological factors presented values conducive to generating intense surface precipitation events.
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