MAE of the short-term wind speed forecast for the Gibara I wind farm according to the influential TSS
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Abstract
Cuba, immersed in the use of wind energy within its energy matrix for the production of electricity, has developed short-term forecasts of wind speed for the Gibara wind farms, with a Mean Absolute Error (EMA), which, on several occasions, in operational practice, exceeds 3 m/s, causing the error in the wind power forecast of these farms to increase. By using the Synoptic Situation Types Catalog (TSS), wind speed observation data provided by anemometers installed in wind turbines and wind speed forecast data generated by the Immediate Forecast System (SisPI), It is possible to better understand this behavior of the EMA under the prevailing TSS in this area. The analyzes were carried out taking into account the rainy and dry seasons from May 2020 to April 2021. A new qualitative classification of the wind speed forecast was established in very good, good, regular and bad, in correspondence with its possible impact on the wind power forecast of the park. With this classification, it was found that subtype 3 (Extended undisturbed anticyclonic flow) was the one with the highest frequency of cases between very good and good in both seasonal periods. Subtype 19 (migratory anticyclone in an advanced state of transformation) was the system that produced the worst results in the dry season, since on more than 50% of the days in which it was present, the wind speed forecast was classified as regular and bad. The other subtypes that gave fair or bad, presented less than 10% frequency of occurrence.
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