Modification and validation of the severe weather index in Camaguey and Las Tunas
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Abstract
Improving severe weather forecasting indices is crucial for mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of these phenomena, especially in tropical regions where traditional thresholds may not be applicable. This study aimed to modify and validate the Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT) to improve the diagnosis of Severe Local Storms (SLS) in the Cuban provinces of Camagüey and Las Tunas. A database of SLS reports from 1982 to 2019 was used, and aerological soundings from 18:00 UTC were analyzed. Thermodynamic and wind variables were characterized, comparing 180 days with SLS and 95 days with simple storms, to establish new statistical thresholds using percentiles. The results showed that the original SWEAT index thresholds were not optimal for the region. A modified index was proposed with new criteria, such as a dew point at 850 hPa ≥9°C, a Total Total (TT) index with a reduced threshold of 45°C, and specific wind configurations (e.g., direction between 70–230° at 850 hPa and 215–320° at 500 hPa, with a speed ≤9 m/s in the lower layers). Validation demonstrated that the modified index increased forecast effectiveness from 39% to 93% for the studied cases. It was concluded that regional recalibration of the SWEAT index, with thresholds adapted to local dynamic and thermodynamic conditions, is crucial for obtaining more reliable severe weather diagnoses in the tropics.
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