Sea level rise produced by Hurricane Ike in cape Lucrecia
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Abstract
Since the beginning of the 21st century, climate variability and change have generated an increase in the danger of coastal flooding in human settlements located near the coast. Tropical cyclones are one of the meteorological phenomena that produce this type of events. Studies carried out in the Cuban province of Holguín confirm the increase in the frequency of being affected by tropical cyclones in this territory. Ike is one of the hurricanes that have left an indelible mark in the history of Holguin meteorology. This system stands out for the extensive damage caused in its path by strong winds, intense rain and coastal flooding, which is why it deserves special mention. The objective of the investigation was to determine approximately the elevation produced by Ike in the cape Lucretia area. For this, data from the National Hurricane Center and ERA5 reanalyses were used, as well as information from the Provincial Meteorological Center database. The astronomical tide was determined from the WXTide32 computer program and the emergence equation and the equation implemented in MODSUR (Upwelling Model) in 2012 were used to calculate the upwelling. The elevation in the cape Lucrecia area, according to the water mark and according to the empirical calculation, reached an approximate value in the order of 5.8 m and 6.5 m respectively, for a relative error of 12%. The upwelling produced by Ike was the main cause of this hydrometeorological phenomenon.
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