Evaluation of the quantitative precipitation forecast of the SisPI2.0
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Abstract
The Short-range prediction system, better known as SisPI, offers very short-term data on wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and other meteorological variables. The first version of the model (SisPI1.0) underwent changes in its internal configuration: modification in the solar radiation parameters, incorporation of the “shallow convection” parameterization and extension of the forecast period up to 48 hours. The changes made room for its second version (SisPI2.0), experimentally operational since September 2020, at the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET). The SisPI2.0 had to be evaluated in order to know the effects of the change made, especially, you needed to know its ability to quantitatively forecast precipitation. It will also, be necessary to know the quality of its forecast with respect to SisPI1.0, and the ability to simulate the weather 48 hours in advance. The study performs the spatial verification of the SisPI2.0 forecast based on the GPM observations, and the selection of four study cases of the rainy season of 2021. The MODE was used as an evaluation method. SisPI2.0 precipitation forecast turned out to be more effective in object identification than SisPI1.0, but quantitatively they make similar errors, in addition SisPI2.0 suggests to have good ability to forecast precipitation with a period of up to 48 hours in advance.
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