Sensitivity study of boundary layer parametrizations for fog/haze events numerical forecasts on José Martí International Airport from Havana
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Abstract
In this research a sensitivity analisys of four Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parametrizations used in the simulation of a dense fog event that occurred on January 4th, 2019 at the José Martí Internacional Airport is carried out. At the first place the performance of differents algorithms that estimate the horizontal visibility is evaluated for to select the more optimal over the study area. At the second place is evaluated the behavior of the selected algorithm and meteorological variables related with fog/haze events with the diferents PBL schemes. The analisys leads to the fact that the algorithms related with dew point depression presented the best results with a critical detection index (CSI) of 0.75. All PBL schemes at the time of occurrence of the event underestimated the relative humidity in a threshold of 2 - 10%, overestimated the dew point and temperature values in a threshold of 0.5 - 3.5 °C and 0.5 - 2.5 °C respectively, as well as the wind speed between 2 - 3 m/s values. The more realistic PBL parametrization was ACM2, presenting the lowest statistical errors and a CSI of 0.87. This suggest a better representation of the physical processes that occur in the PBL and therefore a greater ability in fog/haze events forecasting over the airport.
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