Variability of coastal floods in Holguin caused by hurricanes during the XIX - XXI centuries
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Abstract
The present research aims to analyze the variability of coastal floods in the Holguín province caused by hurricanes between the 19th and 21st centuries, the analogue technique was used to complete the chronology. The proportion test for a significance level of 5 ％ as a method for statistical analysis. As sources of information, chronologies of cyclonic activity and coastal flooding were consulted. The results validated the hypothesis of an increase in moderate and strong coastal flooding from the end of the 20th century to the present, as well as the increase in the parallel path and near the north coast, which represents a great danger for the area. It was determined that for this trajectory and coastline, the threshold distance between the center of the hurricane and the coast capable of causing moderate coastal flooding is approximately 166.5 km. The chronology of coastal floods associated with hurricanes was updated for the Holguín province, which highlights the month of September with 62.96% of the total floods since the city of Gibara was founded in 1817. The methods used and the results obtained In this research they are valid for the execution of future investigations of this type in the rest of the nation, as well as their application in disaster reduction plans and climate change adaptation policies implemented by the Cuban State with in the framework of the "Tarea Vida".
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