Short-term numerical forecast of wind speed for the Gibara I and II wind farms
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Abstract
The present work was aimed at studying the numerical forecast of wind speed for the locations of the Gibara I and II wind farms. This will subsequently allow, together with the power curve of the wind turbines, to forecast the wind power of both wind farms in the short term. For this, the Weather Research & Forecasting (WFR) numerical weather model was used, which has shown good results in studies applied to wind energy as a renewable source. In the experiment carried out, 4 domains with resolutions of 27, 9, 3, and 1 km were used. To initialize the WRF model, the analysis data every 6 hours were used as boundary conditions (synoptic times of 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC) of the GFS model for the months of January to July 2014. Information from the wind turbines located in both wind farms and from the Los Cocos prospecting mast, located in an intermediate zone between the two wind farms, was also used. In the case of the wind turbines, the SCADA data were used and in the case of the mast, the wind speed data at a height of 50 meters above the surface was used. The results show that the wind speed forecast errors, given by the statistics used, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and BIAS, were lower for the 1 km domain in comparison with the other domains.
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