Variations in oceanic and atmospheric circulations. Its influence on the formation of hurricanes in the North Atlantic
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Abstract
The variability of the tropical cyclones in their formation has been related to the variations that occur in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Some of the factors that have been considered to influence this variability are teleconnection patterns. The objective of this study is to determine the relationship between the variations occurring in oceanic and atmospheric circulation with the formation of hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Using Principal Component Analysis and Linear Regression Analysis, it was determined that the main modulating factor of hurricane formation is the sea surface temperature, where high values are the most favorable. These high values modulate both the effect of each of the factors in the formation of the hurricanes. Others such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation also have great influence on the formation of hurricanes. An index that is capable of expressing more than 40 % of the reduction in the variance of North Atlantic hurricane formation, which combines the effect of several factors, was also determined. The two factors with which an index was determined, which expressed more than 39 % of the reduction of the variance of the formation of the hurricanes that may affect Cuba, were selected. These indices are useful for the diagnosis of hurricanes, in the North Atlantic and in Cuba.
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Alpizar-TirzoM., Pérez-SuárezR., & Roura-PérezP. (2019). Variations in oceanic and atmospheric circulations. Its influence on the formation of hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Revista Cubana De Meteorología, 25(1), 46-58. Retrieved from http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/article/view/453
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Bender, M.A., Ginis, I. y Kurihara, Y. (1993) Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interaction With a High-Resolution Coupled Model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 98(93), 245-263.
Camargo, S.J., Emanuel, K.A. y Sobel, A.H. (2007) Use of a Genesis Potential Index to Diagnose ENSO Effects on Tropical Cyclone Genesis. Journal of Climate, 20, 4819-4834, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4282.1
Camargo, S.J. y Sobel, A.H. (2010) Revisiting the Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity. Journal of Climate, 23, 5810-5825. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3575.1
Camargo, S.J., Sobel, A.H., Barnston, A.G. y Klotzbach, P.J. (2010) The influence of natural climate variability, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity. J.C.L. Chan and J.D. Kepert. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, 2da edición, de Science to Mitigation. World Scientific Series on Earth System Science in Asia, vol. 4, ISBN 978-981-4293-47-1
Chang, S.W. y Madala, R.V. (1980) Numerical simulation of the influence of sea surface temperature on translating tropical cyclone. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 37, 2617-2630.
Goldenberg, S.B., y Shapiro, L.J. (1996) Physical mechanisms for the association of El Niño and west Africa rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity. Journal of Climate, 9, 1169-1187.
Gray, W.M. (1984) Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Frequency Part I. Monthly Weather Review, 112, 1649-1668.
Hurrell, J.W. (1995) Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation : Regional Temperatures and Precipitation. Science, 269, 676-679, extraído de https://doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5224.676
Kim, H.M., Webster, P.J. y Curry, J.A. (2011) Modulation of North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity by Three Phases of ENSO. Journal of Cimate, 24, 1839-1849. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3939.1
Landsea, C.W., y Gray, W.M. (1992) The strong association between western Sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense Atlantic hurricane. Journal of Climate, 5, 435-453. Extraído de http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/LandseaGray_JclimateMay1992.pdf
Landsea, C.W. (2000) El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the seasonal predictability of tropical cyclones. Editado por H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf, en ¨El Niño: Impacts of Multiscale Variability on Natural Ecosystems and Society¨.
Larson, J., Zhou, Y. y Higgins, R.W. (2005) Characteristics of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the United States and Mexico : Climatology and Interannual Variability. Journal of Climate, 18, 1247-1262, extraído de http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3317.1
Limia, M., Pérez, R. y Vega, R. (2000) Climatología de los ciclones tropicales que han afectado a Cuba. En “Los ciclones tropicales de Cuba, su variabilidad y su posible vinculación con los cambios globales”. Informe científico. Instituto de Meteorología. La Habana. 100 pp
Pérez, R. (2013) Cronología de los Huracanes de Cuba. Instituto de Meteorología, Agencia de Medio Ambiente, Ministerio de Ciencias, Tecnología y Medio Ambiente. La Habana, Cuba. 7 pp
Rogers, J.C. (1990) Patterns of low frequency monthly sea level pressure variability and associated wave cyclone frequencies. Journal of Climate, 3, 1364-1379, extraído de http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<1364:POLFMS>2.0.CO;2
Sabbatelli, T.A. y Mann, M.E. (2007) The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence rates. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, D17114, doi:10.1029/2007JD008385, 2007
Shapiro, L.l.J. (1987) Month- to- month varaibility of the Atlantic tropical circulation and ist relationship to tropical storm formation. Monthly Weather Review, 115, 2598-2614.