Temporal variability of meteorological variables that intervene in the short range forecast in Cuba

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Published: Jul 2, 2014
Keywords:
Forecast evaluation, forecast, schortrande forescast, variability ranges, temperature, wind, cloud, rain, Cuba

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MSc. Sinaí Barcia Sardiñas
Centro Meteorológico Provincial de Cienfuegos, Instituto de Meteorología
Dra. Maritza Ballester Pérez
Centro de Pronósticos, Instituto de Meteorología
MSc. Evelio García Valdés
Centro de Pronósticos, Instituto de Meteorología
MSc. Janny González Socorro
Centro de Pronósticos, Instituto de Meteorología
Lic. Yiganis Cedeño Rojas
Centro de Pronósticos, Instituto de Meteorología
Lic. Virgilio Regueira Molina
Centro Meteorológico Provincial de Cienfuegos, Instituto de Meteorología

Abstract

The weather forecast evaluation is an activity that is developed in Cuba since 70’s. The evaluation methodology has been reviewed and updated in some occasions, being the valid the proposed in 90’s with the modification done in 2004. It’s true that according with the indicator considered in the present evaluation, the forecast skill has improved in the last years, but it don’t know how has behaved the weather in Cuba in last 15 years. That’s why it is proposed a revision of the actual evaluation due to the uncertainty of used variability ranges. The main objective of the present work is to value the variables ranges that intervene in short range forecast evaluation in Cuba. The methodology of work was based in the statistic characterization (central tendency and dispersion calculus) of each variable that intervene in short time weather forecast in the period 1996-2010 to establish the variability ranges of each one and it can be used in the forecast and its evaluation. Like main results its proposed new ranges for extreme temperatures forecast differentiating between regions and periods of the year. Also were proposed new meteorological stations with sea breezes regimen determining in each case the range for its forecast.

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How to Cite
Barcia SardiñasM. S., Ballester PérezD. M., García ValdésM. E., González SocorroM. J., Cedeño RojasL. Y., & Regueira MolinaL. V. (2014). Temporal variability of meteorological variables that intervene in the short range forecast in Cuba. Revista Cubana De Meteorología, 20(2), 36-46. Retrieved from http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/article/view/170
Issue
Vol 20 No 2 (2014): Vol. 20, No. 2, julio - diciembre, 2014
Section
Original Articles

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