The coastal flood regime and its climate tendencies at the Havana City shore area

Ida Mitrani-Arenal, Axel Hidalgo-Mayo, Javier Cabrales-Infante, Alejandro Vichot-Llamo

Resumen

The coastal flood behavior and its trends at Havana City shore area is analyzed, using archive information from some Cuban institutions and other sources. The weather events that have generated these floods (hurricane and cold fronts) from 1901 to 2015 are studied, taking into account the ENOS event influence on the winter floods and the thermohaline structure changes at the end of the XX Century, favorable to increase the destructive hurricane power, which were determined using oceanographic expedition data, obtained in deep waters around Cuba. The coastal flood behavior shows an increase in frequency and intensity in the last 40 years, as a consequence of the severe event frequency rise, under the influence of an increase of sea surface temperature, mixed layer depth and salinity in the Cuban surrounding waters. Their maximum values were located around the Cuban Western Region, which is the most favorably area to the hurricane development. Moreover, the extreme value of the sea level rise by the expected climate change, around 1 meter according to IPCC [2013], could bring the wave breaker line up to 11 meters in the Havana Seafront area, which lead to an increase of the flooding damages in the area.

Palabras clave

Havana City; coastal floods; climate tendencies

Referencias

Cárdenas, P. & Naranjo L . [1998] “Un índice empírico de ocurrencia de ENOS, papel en la predictibilidad de eventos climáticos”, Boletín SOMETCUBA, Sociedad Meteorológica de Cuba, 4, (1), web site: http://www.met.inf.cu/sometcuba/boletin/v04_n01/espanol/art2.htm

GEBCO [2009] “General Bathimetric Chart of the Oceans”, Digital Atlas, Centenary Edition of the IHO/IOC, Natural Environment Research Council/British Oceanographyc Data Center, Updated may

GOSTROI [1982] “Load and action on hydrotechnical construction”, (in Russian), SNIP-2.06.04-82, Stroizdat, Moscow, 37 pp,

Hernández I. & García E. [ 2011] “Inundaciones en Ciudad de la Habana por sistemas frontales y su relación con ENOS. Influencia sobre la costa”. Proceeding of the VI Congress of the Meteorological Cuban Society, (SOMETCUBA), December 5-9/2011 Havana, Cuba, digital publication, ISBN:978-959-7167-29-7, 15 pp

IPCC [2013] “The Physical Science Basis; Climate Change”, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO-UNEP, web site: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UlvpNH_1x8E

Iñiguez L. & Mateo J. [1980] “Componentes y Paisajes Geográficos”, Geografía Física de Cuba, Universidad de la Habana, Ministerio de Educación Superior, Habana, Cuba, 249 pp.

Juantorena Y., Mitrani I. & Beauballet P. [2000] “Las inundaciones por oleaje en el Malecón Habanero con el escenario actual y el previsto por posible cambio climático” Boletín SOMETCUBA , 6, (2), web site: http:www.met.inf.cu

Mitrani I., Díaz O., Vichot A., Rodríguez J.A., Martínez D., Vihalva J.M. [2014] “Los eventos extremos, impactos en el Caribe y la lluvia en la Amazonia”, Cuba a Brazil no Seculo XXI, 1, (1), 75-80, Editorial Blucher, Brasil, ISBN: 2318-695X, web site: http://www.proceedings.blucher.com.br/article-list/cbs21-224/list/development,

Mitrani I., Pérez R., García O., Salas I., Juantorena Y., Ballester M. & Beauballet P.[2001] “The coastal floods in the Cuban territory, the most sensitive areas and the possible impact of the climate change”, Proceeding of the October 6-8/2001 Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, Río de Janeiro, Brasil, http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/openmeeting/1mtg/01info.html

NDBC/NOAA[2013] “National Data Buoy Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration”, web site: http://www.nbdc.noaa.gov,

NHC [2014] “National Hurricane Center Archive”, web site: http://www.nhc.gov,

NOAA - NOMAD3 [2012] “National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ National Operational Model Archive Distribution System-3”, web site: http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/

WMO (1998) WAVE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING, WMO - 702, Geneva, Switzerland, 168 pp

Pérez A. & Lezcano J. [1993] “Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad de las zonas costeras por ascenso del nivel del mar en Cuba”, Proceeding of the Word Coast Conference-1993, Havana, Cuba, 2, 20-26

Rodríguez J. A., I. Mitrani Arenal [2013] “Representación espacio-temporal de la estructura termohalina en aguas cubanas mediante métodos numéricos” Memorias del VII Congreso Cubano de Meteorología, 3-6 diciembre 2013, digital publication, Sociedad Meteorológica de Cuba, La Habana, ISBN:978-959-7167-43-3,

Torrens R. M. [1993] "Base de datos bibliográficos acerca de las penetraciones del mar en el litoral habanero" Archivos del Gobierno de La Habana, Cuba

Vega R., M. E. Sardiñas, M. E. Nieves & A. Centella [1990] “Análisis estadístico-climatológico del régimen de la veloci dad máxima del viento en Cuba”, Final Research Report, Instituto de Meteorología, La Habana, Cuba, 90 pp,

Enlaces refback

  • No hay ningún enlace refback.