Estado actual de la aplicación de métodos de reducción de escala a las proyecciones de cambio climático en Centroamérica y el Caribe

Alejandro Vichot-Llano, Arnoldo Bezanilla-Morlot, Daniel Martínez-Castro, Abel Centella-Artola

Resumen

En el artículo se realiza una descripción de los avances y el estado actual en la proyección climática en la región de Centro América y el Caribe. Se describen brevemente las características de los modelos climáticos globales y regionales que reproducen la dinámica del clima, permitiendo simular su evolución futura en función de los forzamientos de escenarios de emisión y se presenta una reseña de los principales resultados obtenidos en cuanto a las proyecciones de los campos de precipitación, temperatura y de otros rasgos climáticos regionales, como la sequía intraestival, el chorro de bajo nivel del Caribe y los ciclones tropicales. Los resultados alcanzados hasta el presente permiten afirmar que, a pesar de las incertidumbres existentes, la mayor parte de las proyecciones concuerdan en el calentamiento regional y en la reducción de las cantidades de lluvia en la región, así como el incremento de algunos eventos extremos. El análisis del conjunto de resultados alcanzados hasta la fecha sugiere que la aplicación de métodos basados en conjuntos de modelos, permite obtener resultados más robustos en las proyecciones climáticas.

Palabras clave

modelo climático regional; parametrizaciones; extremos climáticos; escenarios; proyecciones

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