Estado actual de la aplicación de métodos de reducción de escala a las proyecciones de cambio climático en Centroamérica y el Caribe
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Resumen
En el artículo se realiza una descripción de los avances y el estado actual en la proyección climática en la región de Centro América y el Caribe. Se describen brevemente las características de los modelos climáticos globales y regionales que reproducen la dinámica del clima, permitiendo simular su evolución futura en función de los forzamientos de escenarios de emisión y se presenta una reseña de los principales resultados obtenidos en cuanto a las proyecciones de los campos de precipitación, temperatura y de otros rasgos climáticos regionales, como la sequía intraestival, el chorro de bajo nivel del Caribe y los ciclones tropicales. Los resultados alcanzados hasta el presente permiten afirmar que, a pesar de las incertidumbres existentes, la mayor parte de las proyecciones concuerdan en el calentamiento regional y en la reducción de las cantidades de lluvia en la región, así como el incremento de algunos eventos extremos. El análisis del conjunto de resultados alcanzados hasta la fecha sugiere que la aplicación de métodos basados en conjuntos de modelos, permite obtener resultados más robustos en las proyecciones climáticas.
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Vichot-LlanoA., Bezanilla-MorlotA., Martínez-CastroD., & Centella-ArtolaA. (2019). Estado actual de la aplicación de métodos de reducción de escala a las proyecciones de cambio climático en Centroamérica y el Caribe. Revista Cubana De Meteorología, 25(2). Recuperado a partir de http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/article/view/467
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Citas
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Bender, M. A.; Knutson T. R.; Tuleya, R. E.; Joseph J. S.; Vecchi, G. A.; Garner, T. T.; & Held, I. M. 2010. “Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes”. Science, 454-458
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Centella-Artola, A.; Bezanilla, A.; & Leslie, K. 2008. “A study of the uncertainty in future Caribbean climate using the PRECIS regional climate model”. Technical report. Belmopan, Belize: Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC).
Dai A.; Meehl GA.; Washington WM.; & Wigley TML. 2001. “Climate change in the 21st century over the Asia-pacific region simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM”. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 18(5): 639-658.
Diro, G.; Giorgi, F.; Fuentes-Franco, R.; Walsh, KJE.; Giuliani, G.; & Coppola, E. 2014. “Tropical cyclones in a regional climate change projection with RegCM4 over the CORDEX Central America domain”. Climate change 125 (1), 79-94.
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IPCC, 2014. “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
Jones, R. G.; Noguer, M.; Hassell, D.; Hudson, D.; Wilson, S.; Jenkins, G.; & Mitchell, J.; 2003. “Workbook on generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS”. UNDP, GEF, and Met Office Hadley Centre Manual, 32 pp.
Jones, J. J.; Stephenson, T. S.; Taylor, M. A.; & Campbell, J. D. 2016. “Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low-level jet in a warmer climate”. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 3741-3758, doi:10.1002/2015JD024342.
Jones, P. D.; Harpham, C.; Burton, A.; & Goodess, C. M. 2016. “Downscaling regional climate model outputs for the Caribbean using a weather generator”. Jour. Clim. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4624
Jury, M. R. 2009 “An intercomparison of observational, reanalysis, satellite, and coupled model data on mean rainfall in the Caribbean,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 413-430
Karmalkar, A. V.; Bradley, R. S.; & Diaz, H. F. 2011. “Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections”. Clim Dyn, 37: 605. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1099-9.
Karmalkar, A. V.; Taylor, M. A.; Campbell, J.; Stephenson, T.; New, M.; Centella, A.; Bezanilla, A.; & Charlery, J. 2013. “A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean”. Atmósfera 26(2), 283-309.
Khalyani, A. H.; Gould, W. A.; Harmsen, E.; Terando, A.; Quinones, M.; & Collazo, J. A. 2015. “Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning”. AMS. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0182.1
Knutson, T. R.; Sirutis, J. J.; Garner, S. T.; Vecchi, G. A.; & Held, I. M.; 2008. “Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions”. Nat. Geosci. 1, 359
Magaña, V.; Amador, JA.; & Medina, S. 1999. “The midsummer drought over Mexico and Central America”. J Clim 12:1577-1588
Martínez-Castro, D.; Borrajero, I.; Bezanilla-Morlot, A.; & Centella, A. 2011. “The occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Mexico and global warming. Application of a regional climate model”. (In Spanish Abstract in English) Rev. Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio”, 12, 2011. http://www.iga.cu/publicaciones/revista/cte_12/CTE12.html.
Moss, R. H.; Edmonds, J. A.; Hibbard, K. A.; Manning, M. R.; Rose, S. K.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Carter, T. R.; Emori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Kram, T.; Meehl, G. A.; Mitchell, J. F. B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Riahi, K.; Smith, S. J.; Stouffer, R. J.; Thomson, A. M.; Weyant, J. P.; & Wilbanks, T. J. 2010. “The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment”. Nature, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08823
Meehl, G. A.; et al. 2007. “Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Mitchell, T. D.; & Jones, P. D. 2005. “An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids”. Int. J. Climatol. 25: 693-712
McLean, N. M.; Stephenson, T. S.; Taylor, M. A.; & Campbell, J. D. 2015. “Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones” Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2015, Article ID 425987, 18 pages, 2015. doi:10.1155/2015/425987
McDonald, R. E.; Bleaken, D. G.; Cresswell, D. R.; Pope, V. D.; & Senior, C. A. 2005. “Tropical storms: representation and diagnosis in climate models and the impacts of climate change”. Clim. Dyn . 25, 19-36.
Nakicenovic N.; Alcamo J.; Grubler A.; Riahi K.; Roehrl RA.; Rogner H-H.; & Victor N, 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80493-0
New, M.; Lister, D.; Hulme, M.; & Makin, I. 2002. "A high resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas," Climate research, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 1-25. (Pubitemid 34838195)
Peterson, T. C.; & Vose, R. S. 1997. “An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Temperature Database”. Ame. Met. Soc.
Pope, V. D.; & Stratton, RA. 2002. “The processes governing horizontal resolution sensitivity in a climate model”. Clim. Dyn . 19: 211-236.
Rudolf, B.; & Schneider, U.; 2005. “Calculation of gridded precipitation data for the global land-surface using insitu gauge observations” 2nd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group.
Reynolds, R. W.; & Smith T. M. 1994. “Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation”. J. Climate, 7, 929-948.
Solomon, S.; Qin D.; Manning M.; Chen Z.; Marquis M.; Averyt K.B.; Tignor M.; & Miller H.L. (eds), 2007. “The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Stocker, T. F.; Qin, D.; Plattner, G. K.; Tignor, M.; Allen, S. K.; Boschung, J.; Nauels, A.; Xia, Y.; Bex, V.; & Midgley, P. M. (eds.) IPCC, 2013. “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.
Singh, B. 1997. “Climate changes in the greater and southern Caribbean”. Int J Climatol. 17:1093-1114
Stennett‐Brown, R. K.; Jones, J. J. P.; Stephenson, T. S.; & Taylor, M. A. 2017. “Future Caribbean temperature and rainfall extremes from statistical downscaling”. Roy. Met. Soc. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5126
Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zhang, X.; Zwiers, F. W.; & Bronaugh, D. 2013. “Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate”. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1716-1733, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203
Taylor K. E.; Stouffer R. J.; & Meehl G. A.; 2012. “An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design”. Ame. Met. Soc . DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Taylor, M. A.; Whyte, F. S.; Stephenson, T. S.; & Campbell, J. D. 2013. “Why dry? Investigating the future evolution of the Caribbean Low Level Jet to explain projected Caribbean drying”. Int. J. Climatol. 33: 784-792 (2013). DOI: 10.1002/joc.3461
Taylor, M. A.; Clarke, L. A.; Centella-Artola, A.; Bezanilla, A.; Stephenson, T. S.; Jones, J. J.; Campbell, J. D.; Vichot-Llano, A.; & Charlery, J. 2018. “Future Caribbean Climates in a World of Rising Temperatures: The 1.5 vs 2.0 Dilemma”. AMS. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0074.1
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Amador, J.; & Magaña, V. O. 1999. “Dynamics of the Low Level Jet over the Caribbean Sea”. Preprints 20th Conference in Tropical Meteorology. 10-15 January 1999, Dallas, Texas, American Meteorological Society, 401 y 402.
Ángeles, M. E.; González, J. E.; Erickson, III D. J.; & Hernández, J. L. 2007. “Predictions of future climate change in the Caribbean region using global general circulation models”. Int. J. Clim. 27, 555-569, doi:10.1002/joc.1416.
Ángeles, M. M.; González, J. E.; & Ramírez, N. B. 2018. “Projections of Heat Waves Events in the Intra-Americas Region Using Multimodel Ensemble”. Adv. in Met., vol. 2018, Article ID 7827984, 16 pages, doi:10.1155/2018/7827984
Bender, M. A.; Knutson T. R.; Tuleya, R. E.; Joseph J. S.; Vecchi, G. A.; Garner, T. T.; & Held, I. M. 2010. “Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes”. Science, 454-458
Biasutti, M.; Sobel, A. H.; Camargo, S. J.; & Creyts, T. 2011 “Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean”. Climate Change., vol. 112, 819-845, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0254-y
Campbell, J. D.; Taylor, M. A.; Stephenson, T. S.; Watson, R. A.; & Whyte, F. S. 2010. “Future climate of the Caribbean from a regional climate model”. Int. J. Clim . 31, 1866-1878, doi:10.1002/joc.2200.
Centella-Artola, A.; Bezanilla, A.; & Leslie, K. 2008. “A study of the uncertainty in future Caribbean climate using the PRECIS regional climate model”. Technical report. Belmopan, Belize: Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC).
Dai A.; Meehl GA.; Washington WM.; & Wigley TML. 2001. “Climate change in the 21st century over the Asia-pacific region simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM”. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 18(5): 639-658.
Diro, G.; Giorgi, F.; Fuentes-Franco, R.; Walsh, KJE.; Giuliani, G.; & Coppola, E. 2014. “Tropical cyclones in a regional climate change projection with RegCM4 over the CORDEX Central America domain”. Climate change 125 (1), 79-94.
Fuentes-Franco, R; Coppola, E.; Diro, D. G.; Giorgi, F.; Pavia, E. G.; & Graef, F. 2014. “Inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America and its relationship to sea surface temperature from a set of future projections from CMIP5 GCMs and RegCM4 CORDEX simulations”. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2258-6
Giorgi, F. 2006. “Climate change hot-spots”. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08707, doi:10.1029/2006GL025734.
Giorgi, F. 2012. “RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains”. Clim Res 52:7-29.
Gordon, C.; Cooper, C.; Senior, C. A.; Banks, H.T.; Gregory, J. M.; Johns, T. C.; Mitchell, J. F. B.; & Wood, R. A. 2000. “The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of th Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments”. Clim. Dyn., 16, 147-168.
Huffman, G. J. 2007. “The TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis: quasi-global, multi-year, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scale”. J. Hydrometeor. 8(1), 38-55.
IPCC, 2000. “Special report on emissions scenarios”. Cambridge University Press‚ Cambridge, UK.. ISBN: 92-9169-113-5.
IPCC, 2007. “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp
IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections [van Oldenborgh, G.J., M. Collins, J. Arblaster, J.H. Christensen, J. Marotzke, S.B. Power, M. Rummukainen and T. Zhou (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
IPCC, 2014. “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
Jones, R. G.; Noguer, M.; Hassell, D.; Hudson, D.; Wilson, S.; Jenkins, G.; & Mitchell, J.; 2003. “Workbook on generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS”. UNDP, GEF, and Met Office Hadley Centre Manual, 32 pp.
Jones, J. J.; Stephenson, T. S.; Taylor, M. A.; & Campbell, J. D. 2016. “Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low-level jet in a warmer climate”. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 3741-3758, doi:10.1002/2015JD024342.
Jones, P. D.; Harpham, C.; Burton, A.; & Goodess, C. M. 2016. “Downscaling regional climate model outputs for the Caribbean using a weather generator”. Jour. Clim. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4624
Jury, M. R. 2009 “An intercomparison of observational, reanalysis, satellite, and coupled model data on mean rainfall in the Caribbean,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 413-430
Karmalkar, A. V.; Bradley, R. S.; & Diaz, H. F. 2011. “Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections”. Clim Dyn, 37: 605. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1099-9.
Karmalkar, A. V.; Taylor, M. A.; Campbell, J.; Stephenson, T.; New, M.; Centella, A.; Bezanilla, A.; & Charlery, J. 2013. “A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean”. Atmósfera 26(2), 283-309.
Khalyani, A. H.; Gould, W. A.; Harmsen, E.; Terando, A.; Quinones, M.; & Collazo, J. A. 2015. “Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning”. AMS. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0182.1
Knutson, T. R.; Sirutis, J. J.; Garner, S. T.; Vecchi, G. A.; & Held, I. M.; 2008. “Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions”. Nat. Geosci. 1, 359
Magaña, V.; Amador, JA.; & Medina, S. 1999. “The midsummer drought over Mexico and Central America”. J Clim 12:1577-1588
Martínez-Castro, D.; Borrajero, I.; Bezanilla-Morlot, A.; & Centella, A. 2011. “The occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Mexico and global warming. Application of a regional climate model”. (In Spanish Abstract in English) Rev. Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio”, 12, 2011. http://www.iga.cu/publicaciones/revista/cte_12/CTE12.html.
Moss, R. H.; Edmonds, J. A.; Hibbard, K. A.; Manning, M. R.; Rose, S. K.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Carter, T. R.; Emori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Kram, T.; Meehl, G. A.; Mitchell, J. F. B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Riahi, K.; Smith, S. J.; Stouffer, R. J.; Thomson, A. M.; Weyant, J. P.; & Wilbanks, T. J. 2010. “The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment”. Nature, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08823
Meehl, G. A.; et al. 2007. “Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Mitchell, T. D.; & Jones, P. D. 2005. “An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids”. Int. J. Climatol. 25: 693-712
McLean, N. M.; Stephenson, T. S.; Taylor, M. A.; & Campbell, J. D. 2015. “Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones” Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2015, Article ID 425987, 18 pages, 2015. doi:10.1155/2015/425987
McDonald, R. E.; Bleaken, D. G.; Cresswell, D. R.; Pope, V. D.; & Senior, C. A. 2005. “Tropical storms: representation and diagnosis in climate models and the impacts of climate change”. Clim. Dyn . 25, 19-36.
Nakicenovic N.; Alcamo J.; Grubler A.; Riahi K.; Roehrl RA.; Rogner H-H.; & Victor N, 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80493-0
New, M.; Lister, D.; Hulme, M.; & Makin, I. 2002. "A high resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas," Climate research, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 1-25. (Pubitemid 34838195)
Peterson, T. C.; & Vose, R. S. 1997. “An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Temperature Database”. Ame. Met. Soc.
Pope, V. D.; & Stratton, RA. 2002. “The processes governing horizontal resolution sensitivity in a climate model”. Clim. Dyn . 19: 211-236.
Rudolf, B.; & Schneider, U.; 2005. “Calculation of gridded precipitation data for the global land-surface using insitu gauge observations” 2nd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group.
Reynolds, R. W.; & Smith T. M. 1994. “Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation”. J. Climate, 7, 929-948.
Solomon, S.; Qin D.; Manning M.; Chen Z.; Marquis M.; Averyt K.B.; Tignor M.; & Miller H.L. (eds), 2007. “The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Stocker, T. F.; Qin, D.; Plattner, G. K.; Tignor, M.; Allen, S. K.; Boschung, J.; Nauels, A.; Xia, Y.; Bex, V.; & Midgley, P. M. (eds.) IPCC, 2013. “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.
Singh, B. 1997. “Climate changes in the greater and southern Caribbean”. Int J Climatol. 17:1093-1114
Stennett‐Brown, R. K.; Jones, J. J. P.; Stephenson, T. S.; & Taylor, M. A. 2017. “Future Caribbean temperature and rainfall extremes from statistical downscaling”. Roy. Met. Soc. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5126
Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zhang, X.; Zwiers, F. W.; & Bronaugh, D. 2013. “Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate”. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1716-1733, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203
Taylor K. E.; Stouffer R. J.; & Meehl G. A.; 2012. “An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design”. Ame. Met. Soc . DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Taylor, M. A.; Whyte, F. S.; Stephenson, T. S.; & Campbell, J. D. 2013. “Why dry? Investigating the future evolution of the Caribbean Low Level Jet to explain projected Caribbean drying”. Int. J. Climatol. 33: 784-792 (2013). DOI: 10.1002/joc.3461
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