Life cycle and climate risk in tourist destinations: Jardines del Rey case study
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Abstract
Integrating climate risk into tourism planning is crucial for the sustainability of vulnerable coastal destinations. This study aimed to assess climate risk in the Jardines del Rey destination (Cuba) by updating its life cycle model with climate variables. A descriptive-correlational methodology was employed, using documentary and cartographic analysis, expert interviews, and empirical observation on the keys of Coco, Guillermo, and Paredón Grande. The independent variables analyzed were mean sea level rise (projections 2050/2100), hurricane exposure, ecological sensitivity, and coastal erosion. The results revealed that the growth of hotel infrastructure (6.6% annually) outpaced demand growth (3.9%), calling into question the previously assigned "consolidation" phase. It was projected that by 2100, more than 50% of the surface area of Cayo Guillermo and Cayo Paredón Grande would suffer permanent flooding, classifying the climate risk as very high due to their geomorphological fragility and high development density. It was concluded that the classic life cycle model is insufficient and must be updated by integrating climate projections to prioritize progressive adaptation measures, redirect investments, and strengthen the resilience of the destination, discouraging expansion in high-risk areas.
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