Study of the intense rainfall that occurred in Havana province on November 29 and 30, 2013. Synoptic and mesoscale characteristics
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Abstract
Heavy rains are a dangerous meteorological phenomenon that frequently affects Cuba at any time of year. This phenomenon is due to the combination of synoptic and mesoscale systems, which sometimes favor the rapid development of extreme hydrometeorological events. The Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology has been monitoring complex situations over the province of Havana during the dry season. These situations have had one common characteristic: shallow convective cloud cover. The case of November 29 and 30, 2013, was analyzed for this study. The methodology used is based on the analysis of the evolution of synoptic systems at the surface and in the upper air (850, 700, 500 and 200 hPa), relative humidity in the low and middle layers, wind direction and strength at 925 hPa and the flow at 1000 hPa; in addition to thermodynamic indices, radar observations and satellite images; these were used to characterize the prevailing conditions at the synoptic and mesoscale scales. The effectiveness of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) numerical prediction model in simulating the persistence and amount of rainfall was also evaluated. The formation of a moderate convection line with a nearly stationary structure and the existence of centroid echoes of maximum reflectivity in the lower cloud layer are determined, fundamental elements for the effectiveness of precipitation.
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