Variations and trends of the tropical cyclone activity over the Caribbean Sea
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Abstract
An analysis of the variations and trends of tropical cyclogenesis over the Caribbean Sea between the years and is presented. The frequency of formation was analyzed for the extemporaneous months and for each month of the hurricane season, in addition to the trends described by the chronological series and the possibility of existence of at least one change point. A particular emphasis was placed on those organisms formed in the Atlantic that directly affected Cuba. Tropical cyclogenesis in the Caribbean Sea occurs mostly between June and October with marked interannual variability. Throughout the cyclonic seasons studied, tropical cyclones developed with hurricanes, of them with Categories , or . On average, tropical cyclones form over the Caribbean Sea each season, with a standard deviation of . The maximum frequency of formation occurred in October, followed by August and September. Since , an increasing trend was evident, especially from August to October, where of the cases were concentrated, with a change point towards , slightly shifted for high intensity hurricanes.
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