Analysis of the hydrological response of the Limoncocha lagoon to global climatic trends
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Abstract
The research addresses the effects of climate change on the Limoncocha lagoon, located in the Ecuadorian Amazon, between 2013 and 2024. Using a mixed methodology, Landsat satellite images processed with QGIS 3.34.9 were analyzed and spectral indices were used to evaluate changes in the water mirror. In addition, the ARIMA econometric model was used to project future trends. The results identified critical fluctuations in 2017 (163.2 ha) and 2021 (132.0 ha), linked to regional climatic variations. ARIMA estimated an average area of 196,662.9 ha for the next five years, albeit with significant uncertainty. This evidence highlights the vulnerability of the ecosystem to global warming. It is imperative to implement adaptive monitoring and conservation strategies to mitigate impacts and ensure the sustainability of this tropical ecosystem, which is essential for the region's biodiversity.
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