Modeling of coastal floods in the town of Caibarién for climate change scenary
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Abstract
The present work has the purpose of simulating the coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Irma in Caibarién for the 2050 climate change scenary with a mean sea level rise of 29 cm and the 2100 scenary with a sea rise of 95 cm. For this, the coupled modeling of ADCIRC+SWAN was carried out in an unstructured computation grid that includes the coasts from Villa Clara to Camagüey and part of the Sabana – Camagüey archipelago. From this model run, the hydraulic curve of the flood was obtained, which presented a maximum of 1.97 m at 45 hours of running. The LISFLOOD-FP model was used to determine the extent of the coastal flooding in the city, which could be visualized using QGIS as a Geographic Information System. The modeling gave as a result that for the 2050 scenary, approximately 30 % of the city will be affected, while for the 2100 scenary, the affectation will be approximately 50 %. The area with the greatest vulnerability and risk turned out to be that where the city's boardwalk is located, as well as other buildings of economic and social importance.
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