Verification of climate forecasts in the Havana, Artemisa and Mayabeque región
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Abstract
The climatic forecasts of the temperature and precipitation variables in the Havana, Artemisa and Mayabeque region are verified, for the period 2019-2021. This evaluation is carried out for the forecasts obtained from the analogue method, those provided by the Climate Prediction Tool (CPT) and the general forecasts made from the linking of both methods with climate models and the criteria of experts. For this, the verification indices Hit Rate, Hit Skill Score, Linear Error of Probability Space and Ranked Probability Score were used, and the rainy and dry periods were studied separately, as well as the different geographical locations of the study area. The best results are obtained by the CPT and the general forecasts, with a total of 120 and 115 forecasts with good results, respectively. The variable that best adjusted to the climate forecasts in this region was the temperature, specifically on the north coast of the study area, the average values of the indices were 63; 44; 35 and 26, respectively, since precipitation presents greater variability.
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