Projection of future climatic extremes in Cuba under geoengineering scenarios
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Abstract
Faced with the evidence that confirms the warming of the climate system and the concerns about insufficient response measures to limit the increase in temperature global, Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has been considered as an additional action to mitigation and adaptation. Despite SRM being very controversial, an assessment of potential effects on the climate extremes could provide additional elements about its implications. In the present work, an analysis of the possible effects that the SRM would have is carried out by comparing the projections on the future climate of Cuba under SRM scenarios, with respect to a scenario of greenhouse gas emissions. The daily data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures corresponding to the outputs of the HadGEM2-ES model for the RCP4.5 scenario and the two SRM G3 and G4 schemes were used. With this information, 10 indicators of climatic extremes in the future 2020-2070 were calculated and contrasted with respect to the reference period 1970-2000. The results show that the possible implementation of SRM with stratospheric aerosols could slightly improve the future scenario projected under RCP4.5 in relation to temperatures, by attenuating the increase or decrease of extremes related to the thermal regime. However, in the case of precipitation extremes, the estimated changes for the G3 and G4 scenarios are not significantly different from those projected under RCP4.5.
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