Verification of weather forecasts issued by the National Forecast Center of the Meteorological Institute of Cuba in the period 1980 2019
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Abstract
In this work it shows up an analysis of the behavior of the results reached in the verification of the forecasts of the weather emitted by the National Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology in the period of 1980-2019. For this, it was necessary to carry out a rescue and complete of the present information in printed format or typed in the period 1980-2000 because a part was in not well state and of difficult reading. Because of the size of the heap of present data in digital format corresponding to the years 2001‑2015, it was developed for the automated extraction of the same ones, the software Proc_DAT.cbp. Starting from the year 2016, the information was in the database of the Integrated System for the Verification of the Forecasting of Weather (SIVER), so that it was necessary the realization of consultations in SQL by means of the database agent PostgreSQL v. 9.3. The effectiveness of the predictions presented a growing tendency statistically significant in the period 1980-2019 and its minimum points and maxima were in the years 1995 and 2015, respectively. The months more difficult of predicting they were January and October, and the month with more effectiveness was July, with 90%. In the rainy period of the year bigger values were reached that the not very rainy one, except for the precipitation. The forecasting of the variable precipitation and clouding, they presented the bigger grade of difficulty, and the direction and force of the wind constituted the variables with the highest effectiveness.
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