Feasibility study of the forecast of electric shocks using the Lightning Potential Index
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Abstract
The Lightning Potential Index (LPI) is a measure of the potential for generation and separation of charges that lead to lightning in convective clouds. It is calculated within the cloud separation region between y, taking into account the speed of updrafts and microphysical parameters of the clouds. The general objective of our research is to evaluate the feasibility of the LPI to forecast electric shocks on the cuban territory, by analyzing three case studies with significant information regarding the occurrence of storms. In this study, WRF outputs are obtained with the LPI parameterization at 00:00 and 12:00 UTC for a first experiment every 1 hour and a second experiment every 1 minute, both with a resolution of 3km, which are validated with the data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) sensor network. The results show that the LPI makes an accurate temporal forecast but overestimates the area of occurrence of electric discharges although this index is a sample of the convective activity in general. So, the LPI is a feasible tool in the short-term forecast of the electrical and convective activity.
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