Study of the risk caused by extreme winds in Cuba
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Abstract
The researches related to the return period of extreme winds in Cuba contain a limited number of meteorological stations and consider the annual maximum gusts of wind. In this sense, evaluate the danger caused by maximum winds in Cuba is the goal of this article. For that, maximum daily wind values of the station records were use, which is quantified using the return period, using the technique of "Peaks on the Reference" to set the curve of extreme values through the Generalized Pareto Distribution. The article also presents an efficient computational technique for the separation of wind types and the corresponding calculation of the PR curve for the synoptics and storm with the Reliability Interval for a 95% probability. This is important for the authorities that must prepare risk management plans and the incorporation of the required measures, as well as aid for urban planning, trying to avoid the development of urban centers in high risk regions. In general, it was found that the danger caused by non-hurricane winds in Cuba is relatively low. It was also found that the station records are adequate to calculate the danger caused by wind, although in some station’s errors were found in the characterization of the present weather conditions, so as part of this work a simple technique was implemented to correct these errors.
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SanabriaA., Albert FernándezC., & Ferrer HernándezA. (2020). Study of the risk caused by extreme winds in Cuba. Revista Cubana De Meteorología, 26(1). Retrieved from http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/article/view/502
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Yang, T., Nadimpalli, K. & Cechet, R.P., 2014. Local Wind Assessment in Australia. Geoscience Australia, Record 2014/33, GeoCat#: 75299.
Cechet, R.P. & Sanabria, L.A., 2011. Australian extreme windspeed baseline climate investigation. Geoscience Australia, Record 2011/23, GeoCat#: 71858.
Coles, S., 2001. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Londres: Springer Series in Statistics.
Gilleland, E. & Katz, R. W., 2005. The Extremes Toolkit: Weather and climate applications of extreme value statistics. Gothenburg.
Holmes, J. D. & Moriarty, W. W., 1999. Application of the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme value analysis in wind engineering. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics.
Jacob, D., 2010. Challenges in developing a high-quality surface wind speed data-set for Australia. Austr. Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, Volumen 60, pp. 227-236.
Limia, M., Portela, M. & Vega, R., 1980. Algunas características del viento máximo anual en Ciudad de La Habana y sus aplicaciones a la climatología de la construcción, La Habana.
Ramón, P., Vega, R. & Limia, M., 2008. Cronología de los huracanes de Cuba, La Habana: Instituto de Meteorología.
Rodríguez, Y., 2010. El peligro de vientos fuertes en Cuba: una nueva evaluación ., La Habana.
Sanabria, L. A. & Cechet, R. P., 2007. A statistical model of severe winds. Geoscience Australia Record 2007/12, p. 60.
Sokal, R. R. & Rohlf, F. J., 1987. Introduction to Biostatistics 2nd Ed. Nueva York, Dover Publications.
Stephenson, A. G., 2002. Extreme Value Distributions. R News, 2(2): 31-32.
Summons, N. & Craig, A., 2011. Tropical Cyclone Risk Model. User Guide .. Australia: s.n.
Vega, R., Sardiñas, M., Nieves, M. & Centella, A., 1990. Análisi estadístico-climatológico del régimen de la velocidad máxima del viento en Cuba, 1986-1990, La Habana.
Yang, T., Nadimpalli, K. & Cechet, R.P., 2014. Local Wind Assessment in Australia. Geoscience Australia, Record 2014/33, GeoCat#: 75299.