Coastal flood forecast in Cuba, due to hurricanes, using a combination of numerical models
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Abstract
A regional model combination (WRF+ROMS+WW3+SWAN), identified as SPNOA (Numeric Ocean-Atmosphere Forecasting System), was applied for coastal flood forecast in Cuban coastal zones. A module to predict sea level rise by wave setup was added. Nested domains were used, covering the Inter-American Seas, Cuban surrounding waters and shore areas. Several hurricanes were considered as study cases in the experimental work to test the system effectiveness. The following procedures were utilized to evaluate the obtained results: A) WRF output circulation patterns were compared with NOAA re-analyses, and hurricane trajectories with NHC best tracks. B) The records of meteorological stations and buoys were compared with punctual model outputs. C) Storm tide forecast, given by ROMS and wave setup modules at the shore line, were evaluated in comparison with tide gauge records at some points of the Cuba coastal zone, near or located in the flooding areas. Some local testimonies about flooding intensity were also analyzed. It was concluded that SPNOA system is efficient in terms of up to 72 hours for the representation and prediction of wind waves and sea level rise, under the influence of hurricanes; therefore, its use in the Cuban meteorological service is recommended.
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Mitrani-ArenalI., Perez-BelloA., Cabrales-InfanteJ., Povea-PerezY., Hernandez-GonzalezM., & Diaz-RodriguezO. O. (2019). Coastal flood forecast in Cuba, due to hurricanes, using a combination of numerical models. Revista Cubana De Meteorología, 25(2). Retrieved from http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/article/view/460
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Tolman H. L. (2006) “WAVEWATCH III” ; Model Description” Available: Available: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/wavewatch Consulted: October 23, 2010
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Lecha L., Paz L., Lapinel B. 1994. El clima de Cuba. Editorial Academia. La Habana. 196 pp
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Zhong S., Fast J.. 2003. An Evaluation of the MM5, RAMS, and Meso ETA Models, using VTMX Field Campaing Data at the Salt Lake Valley. Mon. Wea. Rev ., 131 (7), 1301-103
Ballester M. y Rubiera J. 2006. Resumen de temporada ciclónica del 2005. Available: Available: http://meteoro.insmet.cu . Consulted: January 22, 2015
Ballester M. y Rubiera J. 2009. Resumen de temporada ciclónica del 2008. Available: Available: http://meteoro.insmet.cu . Consulted: January 27, 2015
Booij, N., Ris R. C. and Holthuijsen L. H. 1999. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions, Part I, model description and validation. J. Geophis. Res. Atmos. 104: 7649-7666, ISSN: 2169-9291
CEM. 2006. Coastal Engineering Manual. USACE WESCHl, Part II, pp. 612. Available: Available: http://www.chl.erdc.usace.army.mil/media . Consulted: March 16, 2009
Dudhia J. 1989. Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model, J. Atmos. Sci., 46: 3077-3107. ISSN:0022-4928; eISSN: 1500-0469. Available: Available: http://doi.org//10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046-3077:NSOCOD>2.0.CO.2 Consulted: February 25, 2015
Egbert G., Erofeeva S. 2002. Efficient inverse modeling of barotropic ocean tides, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 19, 183-204.
GEBCO. 2003. General Bathimetric Chart of the Oceans. Digital Bathymetry Atlas . Published by the British Oceanographic Data Center, Centenary Edition 2003 (update May 2009).
Guo Z., D. Bromwish, J. Cassano (2003) “Evaluation of Polar MM5 Simulation of Antarctic Atmospheric Circulation” Mon. Wea. Rev., No. 2 , Vol.131, 384:411
Kain, J. S. 2004. The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update. J. Appl. Meteor ., 43: 170-181
Lin, Y.-L., R. D. Farley, and H. D. Orville. 1983. Bulk parameterization of the snow field in a cloud model. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22: 1065-1092.
Mlawer E. J., Taubman S. J., Brown P. D., Iacono M. J., and Clough S. A. 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., Atmos., 102, 16 663-16 682, ISSN: 2169-9291
Mitrani I., L. Alvarez, I. Borrajero. 2003. Aplicación optimizada del MM5V3 sobre el territorio Cubano mediante el uso de computadora personal. Rev. Cub. Met., 10(1): 3-7, ISSN: 0864-151X
Mitrani I ., González C. .2005. Experiencias con el uso de MM5V3 al paso de los huracanes “Isidore” y “Lili” por territorio Cubano. Revista Brasileira de Meteorología, 20 (2), 227-242. ISSN: 1982-4351
Mitrani I ., Alonso Y., Borrajero I., Bezanilla A., Martínez D. 2011. Predicción del oleaje en presencia de los huracanes “Iván” y “Paloma”, mediante el uso de la combinación de los modelos numéricos MM5V3-WW3. Revista Cubana de Meteorología, 17(2), 39:48, ISSN:0864-151X
Mitrani I ., Díaz O.O. , Vichot A., Hernández I., Hidalgo A., García E., Rodríguez J. A. 2012a. Tendencias climáticas de las inundaciones costeras severas en áreas de Cuba. Revista Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio, XIII(2): ISSN: 1729-3790, Available: Available: http://www.iga.cu/publicaciones/revista/index.htm Consulted: November 18, 2014
Mitrani I ., Martínez D ., Alonso Y. 2012b. Aplicación de los modelos WRF y WW3 en el pronóstico de los elementos de ola al paso de huracanes por la costa occidental de México. Revista Cubana de Meteorología , 18(1):70-82. ISSN 0864-151X
Mitrani I ., Hernández I., García E., Hidalgo A., Díaz O. O., Vichot A ., Pérez A., Rodríguez J. A. 2016. The coastal flood regime around Cuba, the thermohaline structure influence and its climate tendencies. Journal of Environment and Ecology Research, 4(2). ISSN: 2331-6268. Available: Available: http://www.hrpub.org/journal/jour-archive.php?id=40&lid=844 , Consulted: January 20, 2017
NDBC (National Data Buoy Center). 2013. Caribbean Sea. Historical Data. Available: Available: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov . Consulted: September 20, 2013.
NHC (National Hurricane Center). 2016. Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. NHC Data Archive. Tropical Cyclone Reports. Available: Available: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov . Consulted: January 8, 2017
NOMAD3 (Operational Model Archive Distribution System-3). 2013. Reanalysis-2, NOMAD Project. National Center for Environment prediction (NCEP). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Available: Available: http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/ Consulted: January 8, 2015.
Pérez Bello A., Mitrani I . 2013 a. Pronóstico numérico del oleaje en mares interamericanos y costas de Cuba, mediante los modelos numéricos MM5, WW3 y SWAN, 19(1), Rev. Ciencias de la Tierra y el espacio. Available: Available: http://www.iga.cu/Publicaciones/revista/cte_14_n1/CTE14_1.html Consulted: November 20, 2014
Pérez Bello A ., Díaz O. O ., Mitrani I . 2013 b. Sistema de Pronóstico Numérico Océano-Atmósfera para la República de Cuba. Memorias del VII Congreso Cubano de Meteorología (digital support). 3-6 diciembre 2013, La Habana, ISBN:978-959-7167-43-3
PSU/NCAR. 2000. Mesoscale Modeling System-Version 3, MM5V3. Tutorial Class Notes and User´s Guide. Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division at Pennsylvania University/National Center for Atmospheric Research, 342 pp
PSU/NCAR 2006. Mesoscale Modeling System-Version 3, MM5V3. Tutorial Class Notes and User´s Guide. Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division at Pennsylvania University/National Center for Atmospheric Research, 354 pp
SPM. 1984. Shore Protection Manual. Coastal Engineer Research Center. Department of the Army. US Army Corps of Engineers. Washington, DC 20314, Vol. 1, 656 pp.
Shchepetkin A.F., McWilliams J.C. 2005. The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Modelling, 9, 347-404, Available: Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2004.08.002 Consulted: March 4, 2013
Tolman H. L., Chalikov D. V. 1994. Development of a third-generation ocean wave model at NOAA-NMC. Proc. Waves - Physical and numerical modelling , M. Isaacson and M.C. Quick (Eds.), Vancouver, 724-733
Tolman, H. L., Chalikov D. V. 1996. Source terms in a third-generation wind-wave model. J. Phys. Oceanogr, 26, 2497-2518.
Tolman H. L. (2006) “WAVEWATCH III” ; Model Description” Available: Available: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/wavewatch Consulted: October 23, 2010
Tolman, H. L., (2002): User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH-III version 2.22. NOAA / NWS / NCEP / OMB Technical Note 222, 123 pp
Lecha L., Paz L., Lapinel B. 1994. El clima de Cuba. Editorial Academia. La Habana. 196 pp
WMO. 1998. Wave Analysis and Forecasting. World Meteorological Organization, WMO - 702, Geneva, Switzerland, 168 pp
WMO. 2012. Manual on Marine Meteorological Services. World Meteorological Organization. WMO-558, Geneva, Switzerland, 111 pp
WRF (Weather Research and Forecast). 2008-2012. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 (June 2008, up date 1/10/12). WRF User Page. Documents and Publications. Available: Available: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/pub-doc.html Consulted: May 24, 2010
WW3 (Wave Watch III). 2014. WAVE WATCH III Production Multigrid. Marine Modeling and Analisys Branch. Available: Available: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/implementation.php Consulted: September 13, 2014
Zhong S., Fast J.. 2003. An Evaluation of the MM5, RAMS, and Meso ETA Models, using VTMX Field Campaing Data at the Salt Lake Valley. Mon. Wea. Rev ., 131 (7), 1301-103