Efectos del clima sobre el patrón epidemiológico del Asma Bronquial en Guanabacoa durante el período 1997-2001.
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Abstract
En este trabajo se aborda como las variaciones del clima a escala intra-mensual, estacional e intra-estacional, influyen sobre el comportamiento del patrón epidemiológico del Asma Bronquial (AB). Las variaciones del clima en cada una de las escalas son simuladas por dos índices climáticos (IB), los cuales conjuntamente con el indicador de la densidad de oxigeno disuelta en el aire (DOA) intervienen como variables de entrada en los modelos Autorregresivo y de medias móviles con variable exógena (ARMAX). Los resultados del estudio permiten concluir que es posible con el modelo propuesto predecir con más de un mes de antelación el comportamiento del patrón del AB en un área de salud a partir de las variaciones climáticas esperadas con una efectividad de un 70%, lo cual brinda a los tomadores de decisiones de las áreas una herramienta que ayude a la toma de decisiones para la intervención ante contingencias.
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