Impacts of a climate fluctuation over rice, maize and soybean on Camagüey – Sancti Spiritus region
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Abstract
A low intensity nuclear conflict between two emergent nuclear powers as India and Pakistan could lead to the stratospheric injection of 5 TG of carbon aerosols generating a planetary climate fluctuation. Daily databases of maximum and minimum temperature, global solar radiation and precipitation corresponding to meteorological stations in the region Sancti Spiritus – Camagüey were combined with monthly anomalies simulated by the GISS Model E creating climate scenarios used as data input for the WOFOST 7.1.2 biophysical model during the ten years period affected by the fluctuation. Results showed a decrease in rate of phenological processes leading to an increase in the length of crops phenological stages such as the vegetative stage and total duration to field maturity. This process combined with cooler and wetter climate conditions lead to an increase in potential and rainfed yields for all planting dates which are more relevant during the first five years after the nuclear conflict.
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Rivero-VegaR. E., Rivero-JaspeZ. I., & Rivero-JaspeR. R. (2018). Impacts of a climate fluctuation over rice, maize and soybean on Camagüey – Sancti Spiritus region. Revista Cubana De Meteorología, 24(1), 44-60. Retrieved from http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/article/view/259
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Benioff, R.; Guill, S. & Lee, J. 1996. Vulnerability and adaptation assessments: An international Handbook. Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 320 pp.
Boogaard, H. L.; Diepen, C. A. van; Rötter, R. P.; Cabrera, J. M. C. A. & Laar, H. H. van. 1998. User’s Guide for the WOFOST 7.1 Crop Growth Simulation Model and WOFOST Control Center 1.5. DLO-Winand Staring Centre, Wageningen, Technical Document 52.
Cintra de Jesus Júnior,W.; Valadares Júnior, R.; Cecílio, R. A.; Bucker, W.; Xavier Ribeiro do Vale, Francisco; Ramos Alves, Fabio & Pierce Anderson, Paul. 2008. “Worldwide geographical distribution of black sigatoke for banana: Predictions based on climate change models”. Sci. Agric. (Piracicaba, Braz.), v.65, special issue, December 2008, 40-53 pp.
de Wit, C. T.1965. Photosynthesis of leaf canopies. Agricultural Research Reports No. 663, Centre for Agricultural Publications and Documentation, Wageningen, 57
Diepen, C. A. van; Wolf, J.; Keulen, H. van & Rappoldt, C.1989. WOFOST: a simulation model of crop production. Soil Use and Management, Volume 5, Number 1, March 1989, 16-24 pp.
Diepen, C. A. van; Rappoldt, C.; Wolf, J. & Keulen, H. van. 1988. CWFS Crop Growth Simulation Model WOFOST. Documentation Version 4.1. Centre for World Food Studies, Wageningen, Holland
Fonte, A.; Rivero, R. E. & Rivero, R. R. 2002. “Escenarios de Cambio Climático para las Energías Solar y Eólica durante el Siglo XXI” CUBASolar 2002. Revista Científica de las Energías Renovables. Eco Solar, 2, Octubre - Diciembre, 4toA, ISSN: 1026 – 6004
Goosse, H.; Barriat, P. Y.; Lefebvre, W.; Loutre, M. F. & Zunz, V. 2008. Introduction to climate dynamics and climate modeling.UCL, 159 p.
IIASA/FAO. 2012. Global Agro‐ecological Zones (GAEZ v3.0). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria and FAO, Rome, Italy, 179 p.
Kulicov, V. A. & Rudnev, G. V. 1980. Agrometeorología Tropical. Editorial Científico Técnica, Ciudad de la Habana, 255 p.
Ozdogan, M.; Robock, A. & Kucharik C. J. 2013. “Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on soybean and maize production in the Midwest United States”. Climatic Change 116: 373–387 pp.
Rivero, R. E. 2008. Workbook of Climate Change Impacts Assessments in Agriculture: Basic Knowledge, Methodologies and Tools, CCCCC / INSMET / Commonwealth Secretariat, 148 p. ISBN 978-976-95260-1-3 (PBK)
Rivero, R. E.; Gómez, G.; Álvarez, A.; Rivero, R. R.; García, D. R.; Martínez, I. C. et al. 1999. Agricultura y Silvicultura. En Impactos del Cambio Climático y Medidas de Adaptación en Cuba. Informe Final Proyecto No. FP / CP / 2200-97-12, Instituto de Meteorología, La Habana, 81 – 130 pp.
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Robock, A. & Toon, O. B. 2010. “Local nuclear war, global suffering”. Scientific American, January 2010, 74 – 81 pp.
Robock, A., Oman, L. & Stenchikov, G. L. 2007a. “Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences”. J. Geophys. Res., 112.
Robock, A.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G. L.; Toon, O. B.; Bardeen, C. & Turco, R. P. 2007b. “Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts”. Atm. Chem. Phys., 7, 2003-2012 pp.
Schröder, W., G. Schmidt, G. & Schönrock, S. 2014. Modelling and mapping of plant phenological stages as bio-meteorological indicators for climate change. Landscape Ecology, University of Vechta, Springer Nature, 24 pp.
Toon, O. B., A. Robock and R. P. Turco (2008): “Environmental consequences of nuclear war”. Physics Today, Vol. 61, No. 12, 37 – 42 pp.
Turco, R. P., O. B. Toon, T. P. Ackerman, J. B. Pollack and C. Sagan (1984): “Global Atmospheric Consequences of Nuclear War”. Science, Vol. 222, 1283 – 92 pp.
Velikhov, Y. (ed.). 1985. The night after: Climatic and biological consequences of a nuclear war. Mir Publishers, Moscow, 165p.
Wolf, J. & Diepen, C. A. van.1993. “Effects of climate change on crop production and land use in the Rhine basin”. In Climate Change: crops and terrestrial ecosystems (S. C. van de Geijn, J. Goudriaan and F. Berendse, eds). Agrobiologische Thema’s 9, 71-75 pp.
Xia, L. & Robock, A. 2013. “Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on rice production in Mainland China”. Climatic Change 116: 357–372 pp.