Escenarios climáticos para el sector salud en Cuba
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Abstract
La evaluación de los impactos del cambio climático y el análisis de vulnerabilidad requieren conocer el clima futuro. El objetivo aquí es el desarrollo de escenarios de cambio climático que cumplan con las necesidades de las herramientas que se emplearán en la evaluación a la salud, que en el caso de Cuba posee una metodología propia que requiere especificidades en dichos escenarios. Estos se desarrollaron usando MAGICC/SCENGEN V5.3 (corregida) que contiene las salidas de 20 modelos de circulación general acoplados océano-atmósfera. Se seleccionaron ocho de estos 20 modelos, tomando como base sus características, con ellos se construyó un “ensemble” multimodelo con la media de la salida de los mismos para el área de Cuba para cada uno de los escenarios de emisiones considerados: A1MES y B2MES. Los escenarios se desarrollaron para las variables temperatura media del aire, presión atmosférica y precipitación a escala mensual y anual con un corte temporal en los años 2020 y 2030 por los intereses del sector salud. Se muestran los cambios observados para cada una de las celdas de 2.5º por 2.5º en cada variable y el análisis de sus tendencias que concluye con tendencias positivas en temperatura y negativas en presión y precipitación.
Palabras clave: escenarios climáticos, clima futuro, cambio climático, modelos de clima futuroDownloads
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