Space evaluation of the pronostic of the ARPS model, for the rain artificial increment campaign in eatern Cuba
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Abstract
ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) with parameterized microphysics that was used during the artificial rain enhancement campaign held in
the Western region of Cuba from August 23rd 2011 until October 3rd the same year. A spatial evaluation approach was chosen with an object oriented
methodology. As a method for the identification of objects the Canny borders detector was used, which smoothen the original image by means of a Gaussian
convolution, followed by a Sobel operator that highlights the regions with high spatial frequencies, then the QuickHull (Bradford et al. 1996) convex envelope
algorithm was used to group regions. Among the main results stands that the simulations made reproduced correctly the characteristics of the convective systems that yielded precipitation such as organized
convection lines, cloud clusters and simple cells, Also forecasts between 16:00 and 17:00 hours held the greatest correspondence between calculated
areas, which showed greatest resemblance on quadrants I and II. The model forecasted correctly most precipitation areas, though it occasionally had
a time shift that ranged between 30 minutes and 3 hours and some space shift generally Southward of the observed zones.
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