Validity of the Köppen-Geiger classification for the study of local climate change in eastern Cuba
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Published:
Dec 8, 2025
Keywords:
Aridification, water deficit, topoclimates, CMIP6 models, adaptation
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Abstract
Accurate characterization of climate change at the local scale is fundamental for adaptation in key sectors such as agriculture and conservation. This study aimed to identify a suitable climate classification to characterize the present and future dynamics of the local climate in eastern Cuba. The usefulness of the Köppen-Geiger classification and the Bioclimatic Regime Type (BRT) classification for representing the climatic complexity of the region was evaluated and compared. Using data from WorldClim v2.1 (reference period 1970–2000) and projections from five CMIP6 Global Climate Models for 2050 and 2100 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, 23 topoclimates were classified. The results showed that, while the Köppen-Geiger classification indicated stability for 70% of the topoclimates, the TRB classification detected a widespread bioclimatic transition toward drier conditions in 100% of them, demonstrating a progressive increase in water deficit. It was concluded that the TRB classification is more robust and appropriate for local climate change studies, as it more sensitively captures spatial heterogeneity and emerging trends toward aridification, providing an essential baseline for impact assessment and adaptive planning.
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Peña-de la CruzA., Delgado-TéllezR., Rodríguez-MontoyaL., & Savón-VacianoY. (2025). Validity of the Köppen-Geiger classification for the study of local climate change in eastern Cuba. Revista Cubana De Meteorología, 31(4), https://cu-id.com/2377/v31n4e06. Retrieved from http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/article/view/1002
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Centella-Artola, A. D.; Rubiera Torres, J. & Pérez Suárez, R. (eds). 1996. Elementos de Meteorología y Climatología. Editorial Academia.
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Fick, S. E. & Hijmans, R. J. 2017. “WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas”. International Journal of Climatology, 37(12): 4302–4315, ISSN: 1097-0088, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086.
Greco, C.; López, T.; González, F.; Herrera, J. & Ruiz, M. E. 2011. “Propiedades físicas de algunos suelos de Cuba y su uso en modelos de simulación”. Revista Ciencias Técnicas Agropecuarias, 20(2): 42–46, ISSN: 2071-0054.
Gu, B.; Zhou, S.; Yu, B.; Findell, K. L. & Lintner, B. R. 2025. “Multifaceted changes in water availability with a warmer climate”. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8(1): 31, ISSN: 2397-3722, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00913-4.
Hausfather, Z. & Peters, G. P. 2020. “Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading”. Nature, 577(7792): 618–620, ISSN: 0028-0836, 1476-4687, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3.
Hernández-Jiménez, A. 2021. “Área que ocupan los agrupamientos y tipos genéticos de los suelos en Cuba”. Cultivos Tropicales, 42(3), ISSN: 0258-5936, Available: http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?pid=S0258-59362021000300013&script=sci_arttext, [Consulted: November 22, 2023].
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Iturralde-Vinent, M. A.; García-Casco, A.; Rojas-Agramonte, Y.; Proenza, J. A.; Murphy, J. B. & Stern, R. J. 2016. “The geology of Cuba: A brief overview and synthesis”. GSA Today, : 4–10, ISSN: 10525173, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1130/GSATG296A.1.
Jaisankar, I.; Velmurugan, A. & Sivaperuman, C. 2018. “Biodiversity Conservation: Issues and Strategies for the Tropical Islands”. In: Biodiversity and Climate Change Adaptation in Tropical Islands, Elsevier, pp. 525–552, ISBN: 978-0-12-813064-3, DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-813064-3.00019-3, Available: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/B9780128130643000193, [Consulted: September 14, 2023].
Köppen, W. 1918. “Klassifikation der Klimate nach Temperatur, Niederschlag und Jahresablauf”. Petermanns Geogr. Mitt., 64: 193–203, 243-248.
Köppen, W. & Geiger, R. 1936. Das geographische System der Klimate.
Lecha, L. B.; Paz, L. R. & Lapinel, B. 1994. El Clima de Cuba. La Habana, Cuba.: Editorial Academia, 186 p.
López-Fernández, M. L. & López-Fernández, M. S. 2008. “Ideas Básicas del ‘Global Bioclimatics’. Guía para reconocer y clasificar las unidades bioclimáticas”. Publicaciones de Biología, Universidad de Navarra, Serie Botánica, 17: 3–188, ISSN: 1130-9113.
ONEI 2023. Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 2022. (ser. Agricultura, Ganadería, Silvicultura y Pesca.), Oficina Nacional de Estadística e Información, 27 p., Available: https://www.onei.gob.cu/anuario-estadistico-de-cuba-2022.
Peña-de la Cruz, A.; Delgado-Téllez, R.; Guevara-Velasco, V.; Rodríguez-Montoya, L. & Savón-Vaciano, Y. 2021. “Estudios de clima de montaña en Cuba, topoclimas.”. Revista Cubana de Meteorología, 27(3), ISSN: 2664-0880, Available: http://rcm.insmet.cu/index.php/rcm/article/view/572/1127.
Peña-De La Cruz, A.; Delgado-Téllez, R.; Savón-Vaciano, Y. & Ding, M. 2025. “Delineation of the Topoclimates of Eastern Cuba by Local Weather Patterns and Unsupervised Machine Learning”. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 40: e40230023, ISSN: 1982-4351, 0102-7786, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-778640230023.
Pérez-Rivas, G. & Hidalgo-Mayo, A. 2016. “Regionalización climática de la provincia de Holguín”. Revista Cubana de Meteorología, 22(1): 39–48.
Reyes, O. J. 2021. Pluvisilvas de Sagua Baracoa, sus comunidades, ecología y conservación. Aporte al proyecto ‘Conectado Paisaje’, no. Inédito, Santiago de Cuba, Cuba: Centro Oriental de Ecosistemas y Biodiversidad (BIOECO), CITMA, 281 p.
Reyes, O. J.; Samek, V. & Del Risco-Rodríguez, E. 2023. “Fitocenosis en los Pinares de Monte Cristo, Cuba oriental”. Revista Politécnica, 19(38): 78–95, ISSN: 2256-5353, 1900-2351, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33571/rpolitec.v19n38a5.
Riahi, K.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Kriegler, E.; Edmonds, J.; O’Neill, B. C.; Fujimori, S.; Bauer, N.; Calvin, K.; Dellink, R.; Fricko, O.; Lutz, W.; Popp, A.; Cuaresma, J. C.; Kc, S.; Leimbach, M.; Jiang, L.; Kram, T.; Rao, S.; Emmerling, J.; Ebi, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Humpenöder, F.; Da Silva, L. A.; Smith, S.; Stehfest, E.; Bosetti, V.; Eom, J.; Gernaat, D.; Masui, T.; Rogelj, J.; Strefler, J.; Drouet, L.; Krey, V.; Luderer, G.; Harmsen, M.; Takahashi, K.; Baumstark, L.; Doelman, J. C.; Kainuma, M.; Klimont, Z.; Marangoni, G.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Obersteiner, M.; Tabeau, A. & Tavoni, M. 2017. “The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview”. Global Environmental Change, 42: 153–168, ISSN: 09593780, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
Rivas-Martínez, S.; Rivas-Sáenz, S. & Penas-Merino, A. 2011. “Worldwide bioclimatic classification system”. Global Geobotany, 1: 1–634, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5616/gg110001.
Rodríguez Rodríguez, F. F. R. 2005. Mapa Isoyético de la República de Cuba, 1961-2000. Resultado Técnico del Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hidráulicos., La Habana, Cuba.: INRH, 103 p.
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