Evaluation of the medium-range forecasts of the atmospheric component of the SPNOA with data from meteorological stations of INSMET

Enrique Omar Sánchez Pérez, Lourdes Álvarez Escudero, Adrian Luis Ferrer Hernández

Abstract

Currently, the evaluation of numerical weather forecasts is very important because it is a very efficient way to improve the accuracy of them. In the present investigation was made the verification of the medium-term mean weather forecast for Cuba, in 2015-2017, given by the numerical mesoscale forecast model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting), which is currently used as the atmospheric component of the Numerical Atmospheric Ocean Prediction System (SPNOA), which was implemented in the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET). The data of the observations of all the INSMET meteorological stations in the period 2015-2017, corresponding to the atmospheric variables, were taken as a standard for comparison: mean sea level pressure, temperature at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m, relative humidity at 2 m and accumulated precipitation on the surface. The cell-point verification methodology was used, where statisticians were calculated to characterize the forecasting ability with that model. It was obtained that the WRF model represents with greater ability the atmospheric pressure at mean sea level with a maximum absolute value of relative error of 0.1%, 6.8% in the air temperature at 2 m, 32.9% in relative humidity, 60.8% in the wind speed at 10 m and 386.8% in the accumulated surface rainfall, the latter being the meteorological variable that the model predicts with the least ability.

Keywords

Medium-term Forecasting; Point-to-Point Verification; WRF

References

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