Sistema para el pronóstico numérico de la intensidad y trayectoria de los ciclones tropicales en la cuenca del Atlántico Norte

Albenis Pérez-Alarcón, José Carlos Fernández-Alvarez, Oscar Díaz-Rodríguez, Alfo José Batista-Leyva, Ramón Pérez-Suárez

Resumen

Se implementó un sistema para el pronóstico numérico de ciclones tropicales (CTs) llamado Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF), en el cual se emplean mallas de cómputo móviles. Las simulaciones se extendieron hasta 5 días  y fueron  inicializadas con las salidas de pronóstico del Global Forecast System  (GFS) a las 0000 UTC y la posición de tormenta dada por el National Hurricane  Center (NHC. Para la evaluación del sistema, se utilizaron los ciclones tropicales formados en la cuenca del Atlántico Norte en las temporadas del 2016 al 2018. El error medio en el pronóstico de trayectoria de NTHF varió entre 56 km para las primeras 12 horas y 356 km  para las 120 horas de pronóstico. Sin embargo, la habilidad de NTHF para la predicción de trayectoria no es tan buena como la del NHC, aunque el sistema mostró ser muy hábil para predecir la trayectoria de huracanes intensos. Además, NTHF es útil para el pronóstico de la intensidad de los ciclones tropicales desde depresión hasta huracanes categoría 3 en la escala Saffir-Simpson entre las 36 y 120 horas, mientras que para los huracanes intensos (categorías 4 y 5) los menores errores se encuentran entre 72 y 108 horas de pronóstico, con un error en la velocidad máxima del viento cercano a los 25 kmh-1. Además NTHF es adaptable a bajos recursos computacionales y permitirá el desarrollo de estudios para profundizar en el conocimiento de los mecanismos físicos y dinámicos que controlan los procesos de intensificación y debilitamiento de los CTs.

Palabras clave

pronóstico de intensidad; pronóstico de trayectoria; ciclón tropical; modelo numérico; validación estadística

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