A NEW EL NIÑO – SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) EVENT IS BREWING IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN

A rapid warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters began in March and continued into April and May. At the end of that month, sea surface temperature temperatures were observed above their mean values ​​in the equatorial, central, and eastern Pacific Ocean. In the first two weeks of June, this rapid warming has continued, reaching values ​​of sea surface temperature anomalies above the threshold of an El Niño event. In turn, the subsurface temperature anomalies of the sea have increased since February, reaching high values ​​at the end of May, remaining stable during June. The atmospheric circulation is gradually adjusting to its own patterns of an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.

It is expected that by the end of June the oceanic and atmospheric conditions of an ENSO event will be established. Climate models have raised to 90% the probability that such an event will develop and persist until next winter.

Usually, the ENSO event influences the behavior of the climate in Cuba with rainfall deficits in the months between July and October, as well as with temperatures above their historical average values. Most of the hottest years in Cuba, and also globally, are those in which ENSO events take place. The greatest influence of this event occurs in the November-April period, mainly between January and March, when our climate becomes rainier than normal and also sometimes stormier. ENSO also influences the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, decreasing the frequency of hurricane formation. The magnitude of the impact caused by ENSO depends to a large extent on the intensity it reaches.

The Climate Center of the Institute of Meteorology maintains continuous surveillance of this weather event and will report on its evolution in a timely manner.