Relación de la temperatura superficial del mar y los modos de variabilidad climática con la actividad ciclónica del Atlántico Norte

Albenis Pérez-Alarcón, José C. Fernández-Alvarez, Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno

Resumen

En este estudio se realizó un análisis climatológico de la actividad ciclónica en la cuenca del Atlántico Norte (NATL) con el objetivo de mejorar nuestra comprensión de cómo la actividad de los CTs es modulada por la temperatura superficial del mar (TSM) y la variabilidad climática,. La información sobre los CTs se extrajo de la base de datos IBTrACS, mientras que la TSM se obtuvo la base de datos Centennial Time Scale. El análisis de la TSM revela una tendencia al calentamiento (~0.23 °C/década) del NATL tropical durante la temporada ciclónica entre 1980 y 2019, mientras que la actividad ciclónica muestra un aumento de 1.4 CTs/década en la frecuencia de tormentas tropicals; sin embargo, el incremento observado en la frecuencia de los huracanes no es significativo. La creciente frecuencia de CTs después de 2000 con respecto al período 1980-1999 puede ser el resultado del aumento de las condiciones favorables para el desarrollo ciclónico, como las anomalías positivas de la TSM. Además, las regiones orientales de la cuenca NATL exhiben un aumento en la densidad de la trayectoria de las tormentas, lo que explica la disminución en la densidad de la trayectoria cerca del Arco de las Antillas Menores. Finalmente, el modo meridional del Atlántico, la oscilación multidecadal del Atlántico y El Niño-Oscilación Sur  tienen una influencia significativa en la actividad de los CTs; sin embargo, no pueden explicar completamente la tendencia al aumento de la frecuencia de CTs   observada en las últimas décadas.

Palabras clave

actividad de los ciclones tropicales; modos de variabilidad climática; temperatura superficial del mar

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