Fog/haze events forecast validation using the mesoscale model WRF

Pedro Manuel González Jardines, Maibys Sierra Lorenzo, Carlos Manuel González Ramírez, Israel Borrajero Montejo

Abstract

The main objective of this research is the validation of numerical tools used for fog/haze events forecasting over the national territory. It is an extension of the SisPI project (Short range Forecasting System, with Spanish acronym) working operationally at the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET, with Spanish acronym). Version 3.8.1 of the mesoscale model WRF-ARW is used, initialized at 00:00 and 06:00 UTC to evaluate the impact of initialization on forecasts. As study area, it is chosen the region comprising the provinces of Havana, Artemisa and Mayabeque, which has ten conventional weather stations, divided into North coast, inner zone and South coast, for a more detailed assessment. Main absolute errors and linear correlations of the variables involved in the genesis and evolution of these phenomena were calculated allowing to determine a tendency to overestimate the values predicted on the study area. Contingency tables for binary events are also used for forecast evaluation, which show that the use of a cumulative distribution function allows a high degree of detection of these phenomena.

Keywords

fog; haze; visibility; probability; numerical sounding; WRF

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