Behavior and variability of Extratropical Cyclones affecting Cuba

Diana Laura Espinosa Carballo, Elier Pila Fariñas

Abstract

In this research it’s made the analysis of the behavior of extratropical cyclones affecting Cuba, according to its evolutive zone, presented for the quarters October-November-December and January-February-March. This seasonal behavior is described by the joint forcing of oscillations: El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), three of the main modes of climatic variability that dominate winter's circulation in the northern hemisphere; with the purpose of defining how each oscillations regulates the number of these systems, in the presence of the atmospheric variability imposed by the others. The relation is established using Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlations tests, and the Principal Component Analysis (ACP). As results obtained, it is determinate the combined influence of the positive phase of the ENSO and negative one of the NAO, in both quarters. This effect is greater on the extratropical lows in the evolutive zone of the Gulf of Mexico than in the continental one, the NAO and the AO always correlate significantly each other. For the continental evolutionary zone the most important are the NAO and the AO.

Keywords

Extratropical ciclones; ENSO; AO; NAO; Climatic Variability; Principal Component Analysis

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