--

Miguel Ángel Hernández Martínez

Abstract

This investigation seeks to diminish magnitude errors that are found in the operational practice of high intensity hurricane forecasting through the introduction of new predictions in pattern CT91CI that give place at CT07CI. The information used was referenced from intensity storms that conformed to the best trajectories of 1441 hurricane cases in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico from 1989-2000. The data was obtained from HURDAT (Landse and Gray, 1992). In the pattern superficial weekly half sea temperature will be used, through the certain maximum potential intensity empirically derived from Merrill (1988), with the effects of vertical wind shear on the escalation or weakness of hurricanes in a deep layer atmosphere between 200 and 850 hectoPascal. For obtaining equations a selection potential predictor of climatic, empiric and synoptic characters was subjected to a process of statistical regression analysis that sifted the variables for each equation. For extraction field predictors, the central coordinate positions of hurricanes that conform to each trajectory were taken. As a result, a persistent climatological method was obtained which is able to predict the maximum wind intensity of the hurricane for the next 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 hours, with an appropriate forecast ability for the future evolution of the system. The results can be considered novel and satisfactory given the use of vertical shear wind values to build equations

Keywords

Forecast intensity, hurricane

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.